Prime, Policy Research in Macroeconomics

Image with acknowledgment to https://www.flickr.com/photos/birminghammag/6798098618/in/photostream/ In his FT article yesterday (30 January), “The UK’s employment and productivity puzzle”, Martin Wolf says“The most important point is that the aggregate productivity performance of the UK economy since...

Analytical Considerations As Brexit is finalized we find considerable speculation about the likely consequences for the UK and EU economies after the end of January.  Because this event has no clear precedent, much of the speculation derives from political predilections and opinion without an analytical anchor.  Since private investment plays a major role in both growth and diversification of economies, beginning with the motivation to invest might provide that anchor. As...

 The AssertionEven before Corbyn launched the Labour Manifesto, the Institute of Fiscal Studies launched its critique of Labour tax policies, asserting that Labour’s proposed tax increases were not limited to the richest,:"The truth is of course that in the end corporation tax is paid by workers, customers or shareholders so would affect many in the population".  On the BBC Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell politely rejected the IFS critique, which in essence asserts that the...

Building on the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Global Debt Database (GDD) comprising debts of the public and private non-financial sectors for  190 countries dating back to 1950, Mbaye et al (2018) identify a recurring pattern where households and firms are forced to deleverage in the face of a debt overhang, dampening...

At stake in December’s General Election in December is much more than just Brexit, though Brexit in the form proposed would be damaging enough.  It is a fundamental choice of the kind of society we want to develop.  In September, “Rethinking Britain: Policy Ideas for the Many”, was published, of which I was co-editor. The book brings together the...

Complements or substitutes?Over the summer in OurEconomy my PEF colleague Guy Standing argued that proposals for Universal Public Services (UBS) are not substitutes for the Universal Basic Income (UBI) that he has advocated so cogently.  I strongly agree.  The two are overwhelmingly complementary.  As we approach a UK general election on 12 December and the parties prepare their manifestos, revisiting the UBS and UBI becomes quite relevant. Review of two public policy...

Cabinet Secretary Mark Sedwill has in our view acted unlawfully in ‘advising’ or ‘ordering’ the Office for Budget Responsibility not to publish its report on technical changes in relation to its March 2019 fiscal and economic forecast, due out today.  By giving way, the OBR has helped to undermine its own independence. The only winner is the...

Origins of National Income From the ultra pro-business World Economic Forum to the progressive “thinktank” New Economics Foundation, we find a growing consensus that the standard measure of economic performance, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), needs replacement.  Its failure to adequately measure welfare or well being appears as a common threat in the critique of GDP (treated in detail in the 2009 study from Boston University), a theme repeated in the media.  More broadly, some...

The Progressive Economy Forum today launched its new report, “The Great Brexit Wrench”, on the economic and political implications of Brexit. The report is by PRIME’s co-director Jeremy Smith, and looks at the background to and implications of Brexit from many different angles. It argues that there is no form of Brexit which will have a positive...

On the eve of the 2019 annual meetings of the World Bank and IMF, we are once again alerted to a rise in the debt burdens of low-income countries. Last year the total external debt of both low- and middle-income countries climbed 5.3 percent to $7.8 trillion, while net debt flows (gross disbursements minus principal payments) from external creditors tumbled 28 percent to $529 billion, according to the World Bank’s International Debt Statistics.  In other words debt burdens...