Real-World Economics Review

As GDPs crumble…  With the pause button pressed on nearly half of economic activity in the US and the EU for what is likely to be at least a period of three months, consumption, investment and trade have all collapsed. A contraction of as much as 10-20% of GDP or worse is possible. Pervasive uncertainty about the timing of the development of a viable treatment and/or vaccine means there is no light at the end of the tunnel yet. Even when we get there, the trauma of the COVID-19 meltdown...

from The Guardian Move over Mozart, here comes Stelios Kerasidis. A seven-year-old Greek prodigy has penned an “isolation waltz” inspired by the pandemic. The hypnotic, fugue-like melody has picked up more than 43,000 hits on YouTube since its launch last week. “Hi guys! I’m Stelios. Let’s be just a teeny bit more patient and we will soon be out swimming in the sea,” he beams, perched on his piano stool, feet barely touching the floor. “I’m dedicating to you a piece of my own.” The work,...

from Grazia Ietto Gillies The expenditure given [in the chart] include both private and public expenditure as far as I know. That the US have a VERY inefficient health care system is well known but it can only be made clear by looking also at outcomes such as Infant mortality rate or life expectancy alla available from OECD health statistics. Why such inefficiency. Well then you have to look at the organization of health systems not just the stats. In countries with high private provision...

from Lars Syll A couple of years ago, in a lecture on the US recession, Robert Lucas gave an outline of what the New Classical school of macroeconomics today thinks on the latest downturns in the US economy and its future prospects. Lucas starts by showing that real US GDP has grown at an average yearly rate of 3 per cent since 1870, with one big dip during the Depression of the 1930s and a big – but smaller – dip in the recent recession. After stating his view that the US recession that...

from David Ruccio source Evidence thus far suggests that low-wage workers, most of whom can’t perform their labor remotely, are more likely to either lose their jobs (because of shutdowns, especially in leisure and hospitality) or be forced to continue to work in close proximity to others (either coworkers or customers), and therefore are more likely to contract coronavirus. Moreover, if and when the economy recovers, employers are likely to adopt labor-saving technologies and other...

from Lars Syll Many American undergraduates in Economics interested in doing a Ph.D. are surprised to learn that the first year of an Econ Ph.D. feels much more like entering a Ph.D. in solving mathematical models by hand than it does with learning economics. Typically, there is very little reading or writing involved, but loads and loads of fast algebra is required. Why is it like this? … One reason to use math is that it is easy to use math to trick people. Often, if you make your...

from today’s Guardian Unemployment in Britain and the US could surpass the levels reached during the 1930s Great Depression within months as the coronavirus crisis crushes the global economy, a former Bank of England official has warned. In a stark forecast as job losses mount around the world, David Blanchflower, professor of economics at Dartmouth College in the US and a member of the Bank’s interest rate-setting monetary policy committee during the 2008 financial crisis, said...