Summary:
Now that new home sales have reached a new cycle high (in June), I'd like to update a couple of graphs in a previous post (most of this from an earlier post). For the economy, what we should be focused on are single family starts and new home sales. As I noted in Investment and Recessions "New Home Sales appears to be an excellent leading indicator, and currently new home sales (and housing starts) are up solidly year-over-year, and this suggests there is no recession in sight."… Although new home sales were down towards the end of 2018, the decline wasn't that large historically. As I noted last Fall, I wasn't even on recession watch. Now new home sales are up solidly year-over-year. No worries.... Calculated RiskHousing and RecessionsBill McBride
Topics:
Mike Norman considers the following as important: business cycle, financial cycle, housing market
This could be interesting, too:
Now that new home sales have reached a new cycle high (in June), I'd like to update a couple of graphs in a previous post (most of this from an earlier post). For the economy, what we should be focused on are single family starts and new home sales. As I noted in Investment and Recessions "New Home Sales appears to be an excellent leading indicator, and currently new home sales (and housing starts) are up solidly year-over-year, and this suggests there is no recession in sight."… Although new home sales were down towards the end of 2018, the decline wasn't that large historically. As I noted last Fall, I wasn't even on recession watch. Now new home sales are up solidly year-over-year. No worries.... Calculated RiskHousing and RecessionsBill McBride
Topics:
Mike Norman considers the following as important: business cycle, financial cycle, housing market
This could be interesting, too:
NewDealdemocrat writes Existing home sales try to find a bottom, while severe bifurcation with new home market continues
NewDealdemocrat writes House prices on track to go negative YoY by summer, despite monthly increase in February
NewDealdemocrat writes The housing market’s downward turn begins
NewDealdemocrat writes While house price gains continue to go nuts, housing remains much more affordable than at the peak of the bubble
Now that new home sales have reached a new cycle high (in June), I'd like to update a couple of graphs in a previous post (most of this from an earlier post).
For the economy, what we should be focused on are single family starts and new home sales. As I noted in Investment and Recessions "New Home Sales appears to be an excellent leading indicator, and currently new home sales (and housing starts) are up solidly year-over-year, and this suggests there is no recession in sight."…
Although new home sales were down towards the end of 2018, the decline wasn't that large historically. As I noted last Fall, I wasn't even on recession watch. Now new home sales are up solidly year-over-year. No worries....Calculated Risk
Housing and Recessions
Bill McBride