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Employment, Durable goods, Bank loans, Collections index, China phone sales

Summary:
Economic intuitive sectors of employment were mixed with truck transport contracting. This month’s report internals (comparing household to establishment data sets) was inconsistent with the household survey showing seasonally adjusted employment expanding only 3,000 vs the headline establishment number expanding 164,000. The point here is that part of the headlines are from the household survey (such as the unemployment rate) and part is from the establishment survey (job growth). From a survey control point of view – the common element is jobs growth – and if they do not match, your confidence in either survey is diminished. [note that the household survey includes ALL jobs growth, not just non-farm). The household survey removed 236,000 people to the labor force.

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Employment, Durable goods, Bank loans, Collections index, China phone sales

  • Economic intuitive sectors of employment were mixed with truck transport contracting.
  • This month’s report internals (comparing household to establishment data sets) was inconsistent with the household survey showing seasonally adjusted employment expanding only 3,000 vs the headline establishment number expanding 164,000. The point here is that part of the headlines are from the household survey (such as the unemployment rate) and part is from the establishment survey (job growth). From a survey control point of view – the common element is jobs growth – and if they do not match, your confidence in either survey is diminished. [note that the household survey includes ALL jobs growth, not just non-farm).
  • The household survey removed 236,000 people to the labor force.
  • Employment, Durable goods, Bank loans, Collections index, China phone sales

    Employment, Durable goods, Bank loans, Collections index, China phone sales
    Growing modestly but on an inflation adjusted basis still well below 2008 levels:

    Employment, Durable goods, Bank loans, Collections index, China phone sales

    Employment, Durable goods, Bank loans, Collections index, China phone sales

    Employment, Durable goods, Bank loans, Collections index, China phone sales
    Total bank credit growth abruptly slowed in 2016 around election time and has yet to pick up:

    Employment, Durable goods, Bank loans, Collections index, China phone sales

    Employment, Durable goods, Bank loans, Collections index, China phone sales
    C and I loan growth picked up a bit recently but is still way down from prior rates of growth:

    Employment, Durable goods, Bank loans, Collections index, China phone sales

    Employment, Durable goods, Bank loans, Collections index, China phone sales

    Employment, Durable goods, Bank loans, Collections index, China phone sales

    Some of the decline can be blamed on the Chinese Lunar New Year. The holiday cut into smartphone production. As a result, on a sequential basis, shipments declined 34% from the fourth quarter of last year. Since the fourth quarter includes the holiday shopping season, that decline might not be as ominous as the 13.4% drop year-over-year. Chinese shipments as a percentage of the total number of Q1 global smartphone deliveries dropped under 30%.

    WARREN MOSLER
    Warren Mosler is an American economist and theorist, and one of the leading voices in the field of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT). Presently, Warren resides on St. Croix, in the US Virgin Islands, where he owns and operates Valance Co., Inc.

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