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Macro review, Rig count, Redbook same store sales, Consumer credit, Philly Fed state index, Jolts

Summary:
There is now growing evidence that the economy’s deceleration that followed the collapse of oil related capital expenditures at the end of 2014 continued for about two years after which it reversed course. This means the collapse in private sector deficit spending was replaced by other sources of deficit spending, some of it public, the rest private. The increase in private sector deficit spending was apparently not bank financed, as indicated by bank lending statistics, so seems it must have been done in the capital markets. First quarter weakness, if not reversed in q2, would indicate the contribution of private sector deficit spending is fading, as happened with consumer credit: The resumption of oil capex is part of the answer: Note the dip followed by a

Topics:
WARREN MOSLER considers the following as important:

This could be interesting, too:

WARREN MOSLER writes Retail sales, Housing starts, Philly Fed

WARREN MOSLER writes Consumer credit, Miles driven, Income revision

WARREN MOSLER writes Trade, Employment, ISM, Japan swf

WARREN MOSLER writes Motor vehicle sales, Factory orders

There is now growing evidence that the economy’s deceleration that followed the collapse of oil related capital expenditures at the end of 2014 continued for about two years after which it reversed course.

This means the collapse in private sector deficit spending was replaced by other sources of deficit spending, some of it public, the rest private. The increase in private sector deficit spending was apparently not bank financed, as indicated by bank lending statistics, so seems it must have been done in the capital markets.

First quarter weakness, if not reversed in q2, would indicate the contribution of private sector deficit spending is fading, as happened with consumer credit:

Macro review, Rig count, Redbook same store sales, Consumer credit, Philly Fed state index, Jolts
The resumption of oil capex is part of the answer:

Macro review, Rig count, Redbook same store sales, Consumer credit, Philly Fed state index, Jolts
Note the dip followed by a recovery:

Macro review, Rig count, Redbook same store sales, Consumer credit, Philly Fed state index, Jolts
This is not contributing to the apparent reversal:

Macro review, Rig count, Redbook same store sales, Consumer credit, Philly Fed state index, Jolts

Highlights

Consumer credit came in on the low side of expectations, up $11.6 billion in March with February revised $3.0 billion higher to $13.6 billion. Revolving credit is once again the weak spot, down $2.6 billion in the month following a $0.5 billion decline in February. Weakness in revolving credit, which includes credit cards, explains at least part of the slowdown in first-quarter consumer spending. Non-revolving credit, which includes both student loans and vehicle loans, rose $14.2 billion in both March and February.

Macro review, Rig count, Redbook same store sales, Consumer credit, Philly Fed state index, Jolts
Interesting reversal- historically happens after a recession:

Macro review, Rig count, Redbook same store sales, Consumer credit, Philly Fed state index, Jolts

Macro review, Rig count, Redbook same store sales, Consumer credit, Philly Fed state index, Jolts

WARREN MOSLER
Warren Mosler is an American economist and theorist, and one of the leading voices in the field of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT). Presently, Warren resides on St. Croix, in the US Virgin Islands, where he owns and operates Valance Co., Inc.

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