Tag Archives: August 2023

August JOLTS report: a pause in deceleration, but the trend remains intact  – by New Deal democrat Last month I concluded my post on the July JOLTS report’s sharp declines by noting that “None of these statistics move in a straight line, so it would be a mistake to project this report’s relatively big moves forward. But the trend clearly remains in place.”This month’s report for August showed that was the case, as all of the major metrics...

Consumer spending holds up well in August, despite ending of disinflation  – by New Deal democrat  As I have repeated for the past several months, in the current economy the personal spending and income report is just as important as the jobs report. That’s because, despite the downturn in manufacturing production and many parts of the housing market, consumer spending especially on services has continued to power the economy forward....

Scenes from the August employment report – and a warning  – by New Deal democrat The weekly lull after last Friday’s employment report will end tomorrow. In the meantime, let’s take a deeper dive into a few important trends in that report. First, the unemployment rate rose 0.3% to 3.8% – which is totally not surprising at all. As I wrote last Thursday, initial jobless claims have a nearly flawless 60+ year record for forecasting the trend...

August jobs report: deceleration shows up in spades  – by New Deal democrat My focus remains on whether jobs growth continues to decelerate, particularly manufacturing and residential construction jobs, but also total construction and goods production jobs as a whole; as well as watching for the increase in jobless claims to translate into a higher unemployment rate (a leading relationship that it has had for over 50 years). And, with help...

YoY initial claims restart the yellow caution flag, suggest unemployment will rise towards 4.0%  – by New Deal democrat I’ll post on personal income and spending a little later. But first, initial jobless claims declined -4,000 to 228,000 last week. The more important 4 week average increased 250 to 237,500. With a one week delay, continuing claims increased 28,000 to 1.725 million: For forecasting purposes, the YoY% change is more...

Not Everything We Call Cancer Should Be Called Cancer, rsn.org. The NYPD Denied Our Request for Body Camera Footage of a “Friendly Fire” Killing. Here’s How We Got It Anyway, ProPublica, Mike Hayes. Clarence Thomas officially discloses private jet trips on GOP donor Harlan Crow’s plane, CNN Politics, Ariane de Vogue and Devan Cole. Stay away from Arizona. That’s what Canada essentially is telling its people, msn.com, Phil Boas. Arizona...

Passing along information on Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act, one year out, and the impact on the US. Update on CMS implementation of the Inflation Reduction Act on its 1st anniversary, ACA Signups, Charles Gaba via the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) (note: this press release actually came out on August 16th): The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 was signed into law on August 16, 2022. The new law provides meaningful...

Initial claims improve weekly, continue to suggest slow weaking  – by New Deal democrat [Reminder: I’m still traveling, so with no economic news, don’t expect a post tomorrow.] Initial jobless claims declined to 230,000 last week. The more important 4 week average increased to 236,750. Continuing claims, with a one week lag, declined slightly to 1.702 million: The YoY% change in the 4 week average, more important for forecasting purposes,...

Unlike homeowners, home builders can alter their product and (much more flexibly) their price point  – by News Deal democrat Yesterday I noted that home builders, unlike existing homeowners trying to sell their existing house, have flexibility in the size and amenities of the house they will build, as well as the price they are willing to set, based on commodity costs and profit margins. Today’s new home sales report for July confirmed that,...

Coronavirus special update: the annual summer wave has arrived  – by New Deal democrat As I wrote at the beginning of this year, I would only post Coronavirus updates if there appeared to be something significant happening. And there is. There is a completely new alphabet soup of XBB subvariants that are competing with one another, and one of them, EG.5.1, has been surging in a number of countries worldwide and is now the fastest growing...