Tag Archives: Employment

As previously suspected, last month’s higher print was just a bit of volatility on the way down, as per the chart: Chicago PMIHighlightsAnother month and another month of wild volatility for the Chicago PMI which lurched from solid expansion in January to noticeable contraction in February. At a headline 47.6, Chicago’s PMI has fallen outside Econoday’s consensus range for a third month in a row! Still, this report is closely watched and confirms other early indications of February...

Another bad one, and supports the possibility of another downward revision to industrial production next month: Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook SurveyHighlightsThe Philly Fed report, much like Tuesday’s Empire State report, is pointing to continuing trouble for the nation’s factory sector. The general business conditions index came in at minus 2.8 to extend a long run of negative readings. New orders, at minus 5.3, have also been stuck in the minus column as have unfilled orders, at minus...

Getting more obvious it’s ‘spreading’ much like during the sub prime days, as previously discussed? European banks face major cash crunch European banks may have to pare down assets to bolster capital reserves as cheap oil is taking a toll on portfolios of energy-exposed loans. It’s slowing, whatever it is…;) Labor Market Conditions IndexHighlightsPayroll growth slowed in Friday’s employment report as did the Fed’s labor market conditions index, to plus 0.4 in January from a downward...

This is getting out of control. Sales are slowing faster than inventories are being sold.A weak print and year over year growth continues to decelerate as per the chart: Employment SituationHighlightsHeadline weakness masks an otherwise solid employment report for January. Nonfarm payrolls rose 151,000 vs expectations for 188,000. December was revised 30,000 lower to 262,000 but November was revised 28,000 higher to 280,000. Now the signs of strength as the unemployment rate fell 1 tenth to...

Up last week now back down as this sector remains in prolonged depression: MBA Mortgage ApplicationsHighlightsThe purchase index has been posting outsized gains this year but not in the January 29 week, falling 7.0 percent. The refinance index, however, did post a gain in the week, up 0.3 percent. Low interest rates have triggered strong demand for mortgage applications. The average 30-year fixed loan for conforming mortgages ($417,000 or less) fell 5 basis points and is back under 4.00...

This is going nowhere: Consumer CreditHighlightsRevolving credit showed substantial life in November, up $5.7 billion and helping to boost total consumer credit by $14.0 billion. Nonrevolving credit, boosted by auto financing and student loans, has been the foundation of strength for this series during the whole recovery, but less so in November when it added only $8.3 billion for the smallest contribution since February 2012. But it’s the gain for revolving credit, growing at an annualized...

Anyone notice that the annual growth rate of employment continues the deterioration that began with the collapse in oil capex?Or that, once again, it looks like most all the new jobs were taken by people previously considered out of the labor force?And the anemic wage growth also contributes to the narrative of a continuously deteriorating plight for people trying to work for a living: Employment SituationHighlightsThe labor market is stronger than most assessments with December results...

Saudi discounts for February. Some reduced, some increased, so probably more same- prices fall until Saudi output hits its capacity:Zig zagging a lot recently, now back down to where they’ve been for a while: MBA Mortgage ApplicationsHighlightsMortgage application activity fell sharply in the two weeks ended January 1, down 15 percent for home purchases and down 37 percent for refinancing. Rates were steady in the period with the average 30-year mortgage for conforming balances ($417,000 or...

So a Fed rate hike is nothing more than the federal government deciding to pay more interest on what’s called ‘the public debt’. By immediately paying more interest on balances in reserve accounts at the Fed the cost of funds to the banking system is supported at that higher level, all of which influences the interest paid on securities accounts at the Fed as well, which influences the term structure of rates. Imports up, exports down:Seems to me there’s a substantial number of people who...

One of the Fed’s mandates. The ‘headline’ number is below target due to the energy impulse, but the ‘core’ rate, led by services, is on target. The question is whether energy prices, if they remain at current levels, will ‘pull down’ other prices. And the comparisons with last year are now vs the lower numbers that were released after the oil price collapse. And not to forget that the Fed uses futures prices as indications of future spot prices, even for non perishables, which technically...