Tag Archives: Hot Topics

When will housing construction turn down? A fuller consideration  – by New Deal democrat No important economic news today. Also I am traveling this week, so there might be some light posting, as in, I might skip a day or two. But I very much want to see what is happening with house prices, which will be updated tomorrow in the FHFA and Case Shiller indexes, and Wednesday as part of the new home sales release. In the meantime, after I posted...

Coronavirus dashboard for October 21: the autumn lull continues, despite new subvariants  – by New Deal democrat No economic data today, so let’s update the status of COVID-19. We are currently in a relative lull, with confirmed cases, hospitalizations, and deaths all near or at low levels only matched or exceeded at mid-year 2021 and early spring of this year. Here is the 6 month view of confirmed cases and deaths: At the moment...

“They can only “win” by cheating …,” Homeless on the High Desert, Ten Bears. October 7, 2022 in g’da said Your Daily Chaos, Morning Digest: Elections ~ Here’s something you don’t see often—or ever: Republican Mike Erickson released an internal poll showing him leading his Democratic opponent, Andrea Salinas, the very same day that he filed a lawsuit demanding Salinas take down an attack ad by citing a law that he recently threatened to use to...

September existing home sales and prices decline  – by New Deal democrat With the exception of their big impact on prices, I do not particularly pay attention to existing home sales. Their economic impact is small compared with the construction of new homes; at best they add confirmation to a trend in new home sales, permits, and starts. In September, existing home sales did continue to decline, by 2%, to 4.71 million units annualized (Note:...

With regard to the Albertson – Kroger merger.   CEPR’s Eileen Appelman discusses a private equity profit scheme involving the Kroger/Albertsons grocery megamerger. Albertsons will pay out about a third of its market value to its former private equity owners and investors in November as part of the merger with Kroger. The large payment sets up Albertsons for bankruptcy which Kroger can use to defend the merger. Appelbaum” “‘Albertson’s...

Two of the most knowledgeable economists discussing events leading up to this year’s high inflation and the resulting interest rates. Of course, the Fed is reacting to the high inflation rates. If we look out into the future, probably early next year for a recession. OER should not be used by the Fed in setting policy. The Fed is currently chasing a phantom lagging menace. “Actual* rents and house prices lead the CPI measures by about a year.”...

Housing on track for an early 2023 recession, but with a major caveat  – by New Deal democrat I don’t think anybody was expecting a good housing construction report this month. Those non-expectations were certainly fulfilled. Housing permits rose slightly, 1.4%, from last month’s 2 year low. Single family permits, which contain even more signal, declined -3.1% to the lowest level in 3 years excluding two pandemic lockdown months. The more...

People who quarrel with those with whom they mostly agree and focus on the “to be sure” paragraph of a column with which they mostly agree are a nuisance. I am such a nuisance. Jon Chait wrote an article noting that the GOP accepts antisemitism and the Democrats don’t. He makes his case. However, he has to deal with the case of Ilhan Omar and (among others) Jonathan Chait. I am going to quote at some length “A couple of years ago, Democratic...

The usual mix of articles on the internet. The important ones are healthcare and legal issues. The usual legal issues going on with trump who is flinging as much mud against the wall to confuse the issue of his attack on the US. Eventually, this will come to an end. Hopefully, there is an end where trump is prosecuted to the fullest extent he can be . . , jail. Jail, even if it is for one year. The other big issue I am seeing is commercial...

September industrial production comes in very strong  – by New Deal democrat September’s industrial production report puts the final nail in the coffin in the notion that the US is already in recession. I call industrial production the King of Coincident Indicators because, more than any other single metric, it coincides with the peaks and troughs of US economic activity as determined by the NBER. In September total production increased...