Tag Archives: Hot Topics

The status of the coincident indicators  – by New Deal democrat In addition to real GDP, which is only updated quarterly and with a lag, the NBER has indicated that it relies upon four other datapoints in determining the onset month of a recession: payrolls, industrial production, real income less transfer payments, and real manufacturing, wholesale, and retail sales. The below shows all four, with the exception that, because real...

The Political Economy of Effective Altruism by Peter Dorman @ EconoSpeak Back in the day, I used to give talks on child labor.  I would always begin by saying that boycotts and shaming of corporations, while understandable as an emotional response, were unlikely to do much for the world’s children.  This was because very little child labor is employed in making internationally tradeable products.  Moreover, simple prohibitions don’t get at the...

November real retail sales turn down, return to negative YoY  – by New Deal democrat Real retail sales is one of my favorite indicators for both the current economy and the jobs situation 3 to 6 months ahead. This morning nominal retail sales for November were reported down -0.6%, which only takes back about 1/2 of October’s strong +1.3% increase. Since consumer inflation rose +0.1% for the month, real retail sales decreased by -0.5%. Here...

Real average and aggregate non-managerial wages for November  – by New Deal democrat With November’s consumer inflation report in the books, let’s update two of my favorite measures of how the working/middle class is doing – real average non-supervisory wages, and real aggregate payrolls. Nominal average wages for non-supervisory workers rose a strong 0.7% in November. Inflation fell sharply to 0.1%. So real average wages rose 0.6% last...

Mark Weisbrot of CEPR had an article up in the November LA Times addressing Inflation and the Fed. It appears it may be reprinted in December’s LA Times. “Weisbrot (LA Times): Inflation is Falling Much Faster Than Most People Know; and The Fed’s Response to Inflation May Pose a Bigger Threat than the Inflation Itself.” An essay arrived in my Hotmail account just today. An interesting email which I will repeat many portions of it here. Inflation...

November CPI: Thank you, gas prices! No thank you, owners’ equivalent rent  – by New Deal democrat Just like producer prices as reported last Friday, consumer prices for November confirm the inflection point of last June. Thank you, lower gas prices! Here’s what total and core (ex-food and energy) inflation look like, normed to 100 in June: Since June, overall consumer inflation has increased 1.0%, so is increasing at a 2.2% annual rate....

Rents decreasing, CPI slowly decreasing, and questions on whether any of this is due to the FED’s actions. Industrial production is still the same and gasoline prices have dropped. According to New Deal democrats’ analysis, real sales and real income have increased (still lower than they were one year ago), and payrolls have continued to increase but at a decelerating rate. Jobless claims have not yet reached the signal a recession point yet. If the...

Interesting dilemma for higher education. I had heard that some colleges were having issues attracting students to their campuses. The high tuition and a lack of funding in the form of scholarships, grants, awards, etc. have been an issue when they do not keep up with the costs of colleges. Another issue has crept up which I was not aware of till reading it at The one-handed economist. This is one of David’s selected articles featured in Interesting...

What caught my attention to the potential train strike was it not being clear as to why. No one source was explaining why train crews and other crafts were angry at the railroad companies. Doing some reading I came away with a better understanding. Aaron Gordon at Vice does an excellent depiction of the issues. Biden stance on this issue is very similar to the screwing over of Students with their student loans. He made certain the law would stop...

“November producer prices: YoY measures mask recent sharp deceleration to mainly tolerable levels“  – by New Deal democrat Consumer prices for November won’t be reported until next Tuesday, but this morning we got the upstream producer prices. The news was mainly good, although not good enough to likely dissuade the Fed from its current course of interest rate hikes. This is one of those cases where YoY measures give a false picture in...