Tag Archives: manufacturing

Biden is at it again. This time with Intel in AZ. With all the issues with passing a budget since earlier last year, I wonder how Biden and the Dems got this out of Congress. Must be some pretty good pork involved with these programs to get approvals. Companies are kicking in $240 billion in investments to bring semiconductor manufacturing back to the United States since the President took office. Good move by Dems in a swing state. If you...

Before you go on a bender claiming it is not true. It is true. Your costs of inventory and transportation are high. Three weeks on the ocean plus one week on the dock on each side of the ocean. Transportation costs and time to the buyer. Container costs this last go around were as high as $10,000. Typically they were at $4,000 or less. Are you going to have 1 – 2 weeks of safety stock or are you going to cover the ocean in-transit time. What if?...

October industrial and manufacturing production tank – but it’s all about the UAW strike  – by New Deal democrat Industrial production historically has been the King of Coincident Indicators, turning up and down coincident with the onset and end of recessions in the past. But there are signs that has changed in the past 20+ years since China was admitted to normal trade relationships with the US. Because manufacturing is a much smaller share of...

Industrial and manufacturing production continue to falter  – by New Deal democrat I frequently call industrial production the King of Coincident Indicators, because so often the turning point in this metric has been at the peaks and troughs of the economy as a whole. That has not been the case since last September, when this indicator last peaked. And it continued its declining trend in June. Total production declined -0.5%, and...

Industrial and manufacturing production continue to falter  – by New Deal democrat I frequently call industrial production the King of Coincident Indicators, because so often the turning point in this metric has been at the peaks and troughs of the economy as a whole. That has not been the case since last September, when this indicator last peaked. And it continued its declining trend in June. Total production declined -0.5%, and...

A story . . . Supplier working relationships were always tough in automotive. A lot of politicking going there, lunches, dinners, etc. Kind of difficult to walk a straight line with them and maintain an ethical standard. Yet, I did and was known for doing what I said I would do. I worked for several Tier 1 companies making components for Ford and Chrysler mostly and a bit for GM. There are no good guys here. Whatever they want, they get it....

Forecast: real manufacturing and trade sales are likely to set a new record for January  – by New Deal democrat One of the four monthly series of coincident indicators most relied upon by the NBER in determining whether the economy is in expansion or recession is Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales. A significant problem with it is that reporting of the data seriously lags. For example, the result for January will only be reported more than two...

Despite sharp rebounds in retail sales and manufacturing production, both metrics are on the cusp of being recessionary  – by New Deal democrat Retail sales for January rose strongly in January,up 30% in nominal terms and up 2.4% after accounting for inflation. While that looks great, it only reverses the two downward readings of November and December, and is similar to the reversal last January. This makes me think that there is unresolved...

A respite in manufacturing in August, continued decline in construction in July As usual, the new month’s first data is for manufacturing and construction. Here’s a look at each. The ISM manufacturing index, and especially its new orders subindex, is an important short leading indicator for the production sector. In August, after two months of showing slight contraction, the leading new orders subindex improved to 51.3, indicating expansion....

Quick note; “ISM metric strongly suggests that it is likely that the economy will enter recession no later than Q1 of next year, and possibly much sooner (but probably not now). more detail below July manufacturing and June construction spending: leading components of both are negative  – by New Deal democrat As usual, the new month’s first data is for manufacturing and construction. Here’s a look at each. The ISM manufacturing index,...