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from Lars Syll There are three fundamental differences between statistical and causal assumptions. First, statistical assumptions, even untested, are testable in principle, given sufficiently large sample and sufficiently fine measurements. Causal assumptions, in contrast, cannot be verified even in principle, unless one resorts to experimental control. This difference is especially accentuated in Bayesian analysis. Though the priors that Bayesians commonly assign to statistical...

from Jayati Ghosh The unfolding pandemic horror in India has many causes. These include the complacency, inaction and irresponsibility of government leaders, even when it was evident for several months that a fresh wave of infections of new mutant variants threatened the population. Continued massive election rallies, many addressed by the prime minister, Narendra Modi, brought large numbers to congested gatherings and lulled many into underplaying the threat of infection. The...

Tags: open thread

from Maria Alejandra Madi While the study of wicked problems is not new, there is a need to develop a broader understanding of its scope in policies under the paradigm of complexity. The origin of the term “wicked Problem” goes back to Rittel and Webber’s (1973) questioning of the validity of technical-scientific approaches in social policy and urban planning. In the face of complexity and uncertainty, these problems require iterative approaches, with the consideration of multiple causes...

from Ted Trainer and current RWER issue The conventional approach to development assumes that movement towards a single unified global economic system is desirable. This is seen as providing greater access for all to markets, productive and export opportunities and sources of imports. Globalization involves reducing impediments to trade and investment such as tariffs, protection, subsidies and government intervention in the market. The pressure is on economies and individuals to produce...

from Richard Koo This golden era does not last forever. At  some  point, wages reach a level where foreign competition can gain a foothold. The first signs of a serious threat to Western economic growth appeared when businesses in  the  US and Europe encountered Japanese competition in the 1970s. Many in the West were shocked to find that Japanese cars required so little maintenance and so few repairs. The Germans may have invented the automobile, and the Americans may have established...

from Shimshon Bichler and Jonathan Nitzan and RWER current issue Foundation 2: The self-equilibrating economic machine This view emerged together – and remains deeply interlaced – with the mechanical cosmology of the seventeenth century. Throughout history, human beings, perhaps as a way of alienating themselves from nature, have tended to politicize their cosmos, imposing on their natural environment the power structures of their own society.[1] And this politicization continues in the...

Dave Reilly died peacefully in his sleep, of “natural causes,” last Thursday morning. At least, I hope it will still be last Thursday morning by the time I finish this post. Better known in the blogsphere as Lance Mannion, he has been a friend and an inspiration for about fifteen years now. And an intimidation. He was a fast, great writer. We attended a couple of the same panels at the Clinton Global Institute. Ten minutes in, I would still...