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from Asad Zaman Brief History of Econometrics: Launched in early 20th Century by Ragnar Frisch, econometric methodology was strongly shaped by the Cowles Commission (CC) in the 1960’s. The CC approach relied on structural equations, which embodied causal information known in advanced to the researcher. The goal was estimation of causal effects, and not discovery or assessment of the hypothesized causal structures. The oil shock of the 1970’s led to dramatic failures of macroeconomic...

Source: International Monetary Fund. “As the chart shows, China’s economy first passed the U.S. in 2017. It is projected to be more than 16 percent larger this year, and by 2025 is projected to be almost 40 percent larger by 2025.” Dean Baker

from Lars Syll There are three fundamental differences between statistical and causal assumptions. First, statistical assumptions, even untested, are testable in principle, given sufficiently large sample and sufficiently fine measurements. Causal assumptions, in contrast, cannot be verified even in principle, unless one resorts to experimental control. This difference is especially accentuated in Bayesian analysis. Though the priors that Bayesians commonly assign to statistical...

To allow the maximum number of quality student essays to join the already promising submissions we have received, PEF is extending the deadline for our 2021 PEF Student Essay Contest to May 11, 2021. Calling all Canadian students anywhere in the world and all post-secondary students in Canada who are working on papers taking a critical approach to the functioning, efficiency, social, and environmental consequences of unconstrained markets. The winning essays will receive a cash prize...

U.S. President Joe Biden has been pushing the envelope in bringing America back into the Paris Accord process, setting more ambitious targets for reducing U.S. emissions, and committing to very big investments in renewable energy infrastructure and other climate-friendly measures. This is very encouraging, and will reinforce (and up the ante) for Canada to do better. One news story about the Biden program, however, got me thinking about Canada’s climate debates. The story cited a...

from Dean Baker There has been a lot of silliness around President Biden’s proposed infrastructure packages and the extent to which they are affordable for the country. First and foremost, there has been tremendous confusion about the size of the package. This is because the media have engaged in a feast of really big numbers, where they give us the size of the package with no context whatsoever, leaving their audience almost completely ignorant about the actual cost. We have been told...

from Ken Zimmerman (originally a comment) Neoliberal economists announce to all, whether they want to hear it or not regularly, those who are wealthy and powerful deserve both, and more due to their greater intelligence, commitment, foresight, and competitive spirit. They deny that prejudices of any kind, racial, ethnic, gender, political, etc. play any part in such determinations. Referencing to the old Grouhcho Marx’s joke, these economists want us to believe their theory rather than...

by New Deal democrat Weekly Indicators for April 26 – 30 at Seeking Alpha My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. Right now a lot of YoY readings are not very helpful, because the comparisons are against the worst of the pandemic. So I have been adding some comparisons with 2019 as well. The sum total of the outcome is that, while a (perhaps short lived) economic Boom is underway, there are no persuasive signs of overheating at...

Source: https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R44705/6