[unable to retrieve full-text content]There are a huge number of anomalies and biases which can be understood as confusing the claims that the probability of p conditional on q is high if the conditional probability of q conditional on p is high.  One is diagnostic expectations – the conditional probability that a person has red hair if the person […] The post Direction of Implication of high probability appeared first on Angry Bear.

[unable to retrieve full-text content]In 1998, I traveled to Moscow for the first time to teach in a summer course at the Russian Academy of Sciences. The week before, we were on vacation in Colorado and I heard on the radio “Today, the ruble lost 100% of its value.” That meant that the ruble was worthless, which seemed unlikely. […] The post The ruble is collapsing appeared first on Angry Bear.

[unable to retrieve full-text content]Since Trump and Republicans are interested in cutting spending. I was interested in seeing what Musk and his side kick Ramaswamy might be looking at to reduce. What you are looking at is a Pie Chart showing all items in the budget. The breakout of the Payroll Tax Chart from the Pie Chart (further down) […] The post Where Do Federal Tax Dollars Go? appeared first on Angry Bear.

[unable to retrieve full-text content]Social Security is sustainable. I do not know how many times Dale, Arne, and Bruce have had to explain this. And no, the US has not been on the Gold Standard for domestic transactions since 1933. In 1971, the US left the Gold Standard for International transactions under President Nixon. The U.S. switched to a […] The post Is Social Security Sustainable? appeared first on Angry Bear.

[unable to retrieve full-text content] – by New Deal democrat I suspect that both hurricanes as well as mortgage rates somewhat distorted all of the housing reports for October. Last week with existing home sales I noted that “While sales remained in range, price appreciation increased and the pace of inventory accumulation decreased.“ There was something of a mirror image […] The post It’s not just corporate profits, the long leading housing sector is also...

[unable to retrieve full-text content]Prof Michael Hudson discusses with his Patreon supporters the issues of the day. We traverse through rentier commissions, Ponzi schemes, the isolation of Israel and America, The post Contesting the Corontation of the Rentier first appeared on Michael Hudson.

Are PTJ, Drunkenheimer and Guuundddlaaach still short?

[unable to retrieve full-text content]An explanation of over-reaction to new data starts with a principal agent model. The idea is that the forecasts are made by agents who are trying to impress people who pay for the forecasts.  Another, and more important, case is that of professional money managers who are investing other people’s money and trying to convince […] The post Over-reaction to new data. What have you done for me lately ? appeared first on Angry Bear.

I sin senaste bok — Superrika och jämlika — argumenterar Daniel Waldenström för att vi i Sverige idag är mer jämlika än någonsin. De flesta andra jämlikhetsforskare delar inte denna uppfattning. Vad stämmer egentligen? I dagens Starta Pressarna gästades Daniel Suhonen av Daniel Waldenström och medie- och kommunikationsvetaren Axel Vikström. I Tidningen Näringslivet kunde vi för några år sedan läsa en intervju med Waldenström, där denne gång på gång bagatelliserade den...

[unable to retrieve full-text content]I’ve read where Musk and Ramaswami are proposing a 75% cut in the federal workforce. That’s absurd. • National security-related agencies account for roughly 70% of the civilian workforce. The largest employers were the Department of Veterans Affairs, with 487,000 workers, followed by the armed services, the Department of Homeland Security, and the Justice Department. […] The post Federal worker cuts are mostly not gonna happen...