Econometrics — science based on unwarranted assumptions Unfortunately, assumption uncertainty reduces the status of deductions and statistical computations to exercises in hypothetical reasoning – they provide best-case scenarios of what we could infer from specific data. Even more unfortunate, however, is that this exercise is deceptive to the extent it ignores or misrepresents available information, and makes hidden assumptions that are unsupported by...

In science, courage is to follow the motto of enlightenment and Kant’s dictum — Sapere Aude!  To use your understanding, have the ​courage to think for yourself and question ‘received opinion,’ authority or orthodoxy. In our daily lives, courage is the capability to confront fear, as when in front of the powerful and mighty, not to step back, but stand up for one’s right not to be humiliated or abused. Courage is to do the right thing in spite of danger and fear. As when the...

Figure 1: A Part of the Parameter Space1.0 Introduction This post presents a perturbation of an example from Salvatore Baldone. It follows the style of some posts that almost add up to a draft research paper. A widespread view among Austrian-school and mainstream economists is mistaken. Given competitive markets, if the supply of capital were increased, in some sense, the rate of profits would supposedly be driven down. At the level of abstraction here, no distinction exists between the...

I (run7511) resurrected this commentary from March 2013. It is a realistic commentary about what John Roberts is all about. A take on what they were discussing then and how SCOTUS is reacting today. WASHINGTON — As the justices of the Supreme Court struggled with the question of same-sex marriage this week, politicians in Congress kept handing down their own verdict. One after another, a series of lawmakers in recent days endorsed allowing gay men...

Similar story as what Medicare Advantage does in comparison to Traditional Medicare. Denials in commercial healthcare sound very similar as to what is found in Medicare Advantage plans. Similarities are the same companies sell both types of healthcare insurance. What has come into play with commercial healthcare is the PPACA which can force commercial healthcare to release more information. What is being looked at in this commentary are denials of...

The Constitution does not impose complete separation between the judiciary and the political branches. Instead, it establishes a federal judicial branch that is separate from the legislative and executive branches and benefits from certain important protections3 but also grants the political branches, and especially Congress, substantial power to regulate and otherwise influence the federal courts. Beyond the authority to confirm and impeach...

A couple of should-reads by major influencers.TimeWhy the World Is on the Brink of Great DisorderRay DalioVox.eu — CEPRClimate risk stress tests underestimate potential financial sector lossesHenk Jan Reinders, Dirk Schoenmaker, Mathijs Van Dijkh/t Lambert Strether at Naked CapitalismGlobal SouthThe Age of Confrontation: Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev-on how the tectonic civilizational rift can and should be resolved amarynth

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What was so evident with the massive failure of investors’ beliefs about how the economic system works. The elites were so wrong.

Beneficial or Destructive?