Prices are not going to be reduced any time soon…. Biden Fed people will keep increasing the rates too which will make monthly payments even higher….  Keep maintaining and repairing your current car bro…Used car inventories are still falling.We’re now at only ~2M available units on dealer lots across the *nation*.The LOWEST on record.— CarDealershipGuy (@GuyDealership) April 14, 2023

money creation a lie?

The other day I posted some charts covering drug addiction. in the US. The first Bar Chart below matches up with Figure 3 in that post “Drug Overdose Death Rates in the US,” Angry Bear. Today’s post as taken from the Senate Joint Economic Committee fleshes out the numbers cited there and also here in the first chart below. It was more than just people catching Covid. There was a significant increase in the numbers of US citizens inflicted with Opioid...

March real retail sales lay an egg, suggests downturn in nonfarm payrolls by the end of summer  – by New Deal democrat  After a quiet early part of the week, today we get a deluge of data: retail sales and industrial production for March, and total business sales for February. Because real total business sales are one of the 4 big coincident indicators tracked by the NBER, and because retail sales are about 1/3rd of the total, and industrial...

It seems pretty clear that I’ve underestimated both the Albanese governments chances for a second term and the prospects for getting the Voice referendum passed. So, I’m considering where I got things wrong. First, I underestimated how bad the LNP Opposition would be. In part that’s because I assumed it would be led by Frydenberg. I’m not a fan, but he would have been much more effective than Dutton. Relatedly, I’ve been surprised by the unwillingness of the LNP to give an inch...

from Lars Syll There’s nothing magical about Bayes’ theorem. It boils down to the truism that your belief is only as valid as its evidence. If you have good evidence, Bayes’ theorem can yield good results. If your evidence is flimsy, Bayes’ theorem won’t be of much use. Garbage in, garbage out. The potential for Bayes abuse begins with your initial estimate of the probability of your belief, often called the “prior” … In many cases, estimating the prior is just guesswork, allowing...

Initial claims continue to warrant yellow caution flag  – by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims last week rose 11,000 to 239,000. The more important 4 week average rose 2,250 to 240,000. Continuing claims, with a one week delay, decreased 13,000 to 1,823,000: At this juncture the YoY change is more important, because increases of more than 10%, especially in the 4 week average, or monthly, are a yellow caution flag for recession, and...

It was, maybe, the late eighties and I was at Oscar Mayer buying packaging for products such as Lunchables, hot dogs, bacon, etc. and the labels. This buy included the graphics. Management thought they were overwhelming me. Indeed, I was thriving having commandeered on OM Wiener mo-jet to visit suppliers in Minnesota and Massachusetts. I did not ask, they offered one of the planes up. A side category responsibility for me was the purchase of...

This is a brief and targeted commentary by EPI’s Josh Bivens to which I have added input. The Fed has been flailing away at the economy in the belief Labor is the issue. Josh contends, product or profit markups have been a major issue. He does provide a foundation for his posit.I look to the supply chain issue(s) as the basis for the higher profits. I experienced similar in getting componentry in 2008-2010. With less supply and a lengthen (and silly lead times) lead time, companies increased...

This article is a grab bag of comments on the paper: “Deficits Do Matter: A Review of Modern Monetary Theory” by Farah Omran and Mark Zelmer. I have mentioned this article before, for the good reason that Mark Zelmer will be on the other side of a panel on Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) that I will be on in late May....Bond Economics Comments On The Omran/Zelmer MMT CritiqueBrian Romanchuk