Social scientists pursue a variety of different purposes such as predicting events of interest, explaining individual events or general phenomena, and controlling outcomes for policy. It is interesting to note that the language of“cause” is employed in all these contexts … What kind of causal hypothesis should be investigated (and, in tandem, what kind of evidence should be sought) therefore is to be determined on the basis of purpose pursued in the given context. For certain...

Lars Syll   Because statistical analyses need a causal skeleton to connect to the world, causality is not extra-statistical but instead is a logical antecedent of real-world inferences. Claims of random or “ignorable” or “unbiased” sampling or allocation are justified by causal actions to block (“control”) unwanted causal effects on the sample patterns. Without such actions of causal blocking, independence can only be treated as a subjective exchangeability assumption whose justification...

Yesterday (March 7, 2023) two big things happened. The first is that I got a lovely bunch of sunflower blooms for my birthday present. Which was ace. The second, the RBA Board wheeled out the governor to announce the 10th consecutive interest rate rise even though inflation has been falling for several months. The RBA has now become preposterous and the Government should definitely terminate the tenure of the Governor in September when his term is up for renewal. In the meantime, it should...

 The Digital Age, knowledge revolution, and data harvesting are embraced by the Chinese leadership as national policy. This is an huge step in getting numbers on a whole system in real time.New ‘Digital China’ vision a response to US tech curbs as authorities outline a ‘whole nation’ approach to going digital Asia TimesChina’s grand plan for a world-beating digital futureJeff Pao

Mr Haney debriefs Powell yesterday to identify the GOP dream scenario for 2024:“To get inflation down to 2.2%, based on history, unemployment would have to go to 10.6%."Both Sen Kennedy & Jerome Powell could be right. pic.twitter.com/yWIjQVTxHZ— Patrick Bet-David (@patrickbetdavid) March 8, 2023 Dementia Brandon telling Fed to “stay the course!”, while Pocahontas not so sure:WATCH?: Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell: “We are taking the only measures we have to bring inflation...

.[embedded content] The economic implications of gender discrimination are most serious. To deny women is to deprive a country of labor​ and talent, but — even worse — to undermine the drive to achievement of boys and men. One cannot rear young people in such wise that half of them think themselves superior by biology, without dulling ambition and devaluing accomplishment … To be sure, any society will have its achievers no matter what, if only because it has its own division...

“Michigan Supreme Court hearing on automobile no-fault reform: What to know,” Bridge Michigan, In reading this, I can almost guarantee, the citizens of the state of Michigan had not given any thought to the screwing over of those who suffered catastrophic injury due to automobile accidents. Indeed, it was business interests who set the pace for the repeal of No-Fault Auto Insurance. Michigan residents lived with the higher insurance...

Thoughts on this commentary? Marseille: full canal and empty streams, The one-handed economist, Margot . . . Margot writes* Despite being located in a dry and warm region, Marseille is described as the “world capital of water” by the World Water Forum. Indeed, Marseille is known for its efficient water management and water infrastructures like the canal of Marseille, the Roquefavour aqueduct, or the Palais Longchamp. The Marseille Canal...