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The empirical turn in economics

from Lars Syll Ce qui fait l’unité de la discipline est plutôt l’identification causale, c’est-à-dire un ensemble de méthodes statistiques qui permettent d’estimer les liens de cause à effet entre un facteur quelconque et des résultats économiques. Dans cette perspective, la démarche scientifique vise à reproduire in vivo l’expérience de laboratoire, où l’on peut distinguer aisément la différence de résultat entre un groupe auquel on administre un traitement et un autre groupe semblable...

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Russia, China set to create payment system without using SWIFT — Deputy PM Alexander Novak

Russia and China are working on a reciprocal opening of company accounts to avoid the use of SWIFT, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said on Tuesday. He was speaking at the 4th Russian-Chinese Energy Business Forum.Novak recalled that payments under contracts for gas supplies from Russia to China are already switching to the national currencies of the two countries. Besides that, settlements for supplies of oil, petroleum products and coal are being actively transferred in...

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Dollar Dominance is Financial Dominance — Orsola Costantini

What Strategies can Break This Dependency?The dollar system has proven resilient in the face of recent extreme and unexpected shocks, but it has also failed to foster sustainable growth and prosperity. Can it survive its contradictions? Evidence from the latest Trade and Development Report of UNCTAD suggests better South-South and commodity producers-consumers agreements are needed, on the way to a more inclusive international monetary system.INETDollar Dominance is Financial DominanceOrsola...

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Brazil and Argentina Just Agreed to Use Local Currencies for Bilateral Energy Trade, In Yet Another Snub for US Dollar — Nick Corbishley

Another step toward de-dollarization. How, as Nick Corbishley, this is not the final goal, which is the establishment of a new monetary system that ushers the Global South/East into the club from which the current arrangements not only exclude them but also submit them for control. This will take time and the process is not yet clear enough to be foreseeable.Naked CapitalismBrazil and Argentina Just Agreed to Use Local Currencies for Bilateral Energy Trade, In Yet Another Snub for US...

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Savings Glut, Secular Stagnation, Demographic Reversal, and Inequality: Beyond Conventional Explanations of Lower Interest Rates

New Working Paper published by the Political Economy Research Institute (PERI). From the abstract:Interest rates have declined over the last 40 years, a period of increasing inequality. The steady decline in interest rates has been interpreted by and large as resulting from a decline of the natural rate of interest. This paper surveys the main explanations associated with the notion of a decline in the natural rate of interest, including the savings glut and the secular stagnation...

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The Hard Truth About Long Wars: Why the Conflict in Ukraine Won’t End Anytime Soon

When Russia invaded Ukraine in February, few observers imagined that the war would still be raging today. Russian planners did not account for the stern resistance of Ukrainian forces, the enthusiastic support Ukraine would receive from Europe and North America, or the various shortcomings of their own military. Both sides are now dug in, and the fighting could carry on for months, if not years. Why is this war dragging on? Most conflicts are brief. Over the last two centuries, most wars...

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Still signs that a bottoming process might be taking place

New home sales adjusted for cancellations: still signs that a bottoming process might be taking place by NewDeal democrat I had a correspondent question me about whether new home sales might actually be in the process of bottoming, due to the big increase in the percentage of cancellations, as shown below (via Bill McBride): This is something I’ve been aware of, and commented on one month ago in the context of housing that was permitted but...

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