Durable goods orders come in mixed; leaving only employment indicators as short term positives for the economy – by New Deal democrat Manufacturers’ durable goods orders, and in particular “core” orders, which exclude defense and transportation (a/k/a Boeing), are (albeit noisy) a short leading indicator. I normally don’t pay too much attention to them because of that noise, and because they are less reliable than other indicators; but until recently, they were one of the few positive short leading indicators remaining – so I have been interested in when they might roll over. Here’s the long term look at each for the past 25 years: To cut to the chase, while total durable goods orders rose 5.6% for the month, core capital goods orders
Topics:
NewDealdemocrat considers the following as important: durable goods, Labor is Positive, New Deal Democrat, politics, US EConomics, US/Global Economics
This could be interesting, too:
NewDealdemocrat writes Real GDP for Q3 nicely positive, but long leading components mediocre to negative for the second quarter in a row
Joel Eissenberg writes Healthcare and the 2024 presidential election
NewDealdemocrat writes JOLTS report for September shows continued deceleration in almost all metrics, now close to a cause for concern
Angry Bear writes Title 8 Apprehensions, Office of Field Operations (OFO) Title 8 Inadmissible, and Title 42 Expulsions
Durable goods orders come in mixed; leaving only employment indicators as short term positives for the economy
– by New Deal democrat
Manufacturers’ durable goods orders, and in particular “core” orders, which exclude defense and transportation (a/k/a Boeing), are (albeit noisy) a short leading indicator. I normally don’t pay too much attention to them because of that noise, and because they are less reliable than other indicators; but until recently, they were one of the few positive short leading indicators remaining – so I have been interested in when they might roll over.
Here’s the long term look at each for the past 25 years:
To cut to the chase, while total durable goods orders rose 5.6% for the month, core capital goods orders declined -0.2%:
This isn’t quite “rolling over,” but on the other hand, core capital goods orders haven’t made a new high since August.
The bottom line is that they are basically neutral. At this point only labor market indicators remain positive for the near-term economy.
Durable goods orders appear to have peaked, Angry Bear, angry bear blog