Durable goods orders come in mixed; leaving only employment indicators as short term positives for the economy – by New Deal democrat Manufacturers’ durable goods orders, and in particular “core” orders, which exclude defense and transportation (a/k/a Boeing), are (albeit noisy) a short leading indicator. I normally don’t pay too much attention to them because of that noise, and because they are less reliable than other indicators; but until recently, they were one of the few positive short leading indicators remaining – so I have been interested in when they might roll over. Here’s the long term look at each for the past 25 years: To cut to the chase, while total durable goods orders rose 5.6% for the month, core capital goods orders
Topics:
NewDealdemocrat considers the following as important: durable goods, Labor is Positive, New Deal Democrat, politics, US EConomics, US/Global Economics
This could be interesting, too:
NewDealdemocrat writes Retail Real Sales
Angry Bear writes Planned Tariffs, An Economy Argument with Political Implications
Joel Eissenberg writes Will DOGE be an exercise in futility?
Bill Haskell writes The spider’s web called Healthcare Insurance
Durable goods orders come in mixed; leaving only employment indicators as short term positives for the economy
– by New Deal democrat
Manufacturers’ durable goods orders, and in particular “core” orders, which exclude defense and transportation (a/k/a Boeing), are (albeit noisy) a short leading indicator. I normally don’t pay too much attention to them because of that noise, and because they are less reliable than other indicators; but until recently, they were one of the few positive short leading indicators remaining – so I have been interested in when they might roll over.
Here’s the long term look at each for the past 25 years:
To cut to the chase, while total durable goods orders rose 5.6% for the month, core capital goods orders declined -0.2%:
This isn’t quite “rolling over,” but on the other hand, core capital goods orders haven’t made a new high since August.
The bottom line is that they are basically neutral. At this point only labor market indicators remain positive for the near-term economy.
Durable goods orders appear to have peaked, Angry Bear, angry bear blog