A soft landing (disinflation without a recession) looks possible.  Also the remaining threat is the FED’s sticking with high interest rates, even though inflation is at a very reasonable level. I personally publicly and will almost certainly decline even if unemployment remains low.

The change can be predicted, because the US index includes owner equivalent rent, a price which no one pays which is a calculation of how much homeowners would pay if they rented their houses. Rent in the following year and owner equivalent rent are very predictable, because leases generally have monthly rent in dollars fixed for at least one year. The rent on newly signed leases can be used to predict future average rent — rent is in practice a 12 month moving

Since the beginning of the Covid epidemic, the US economy has performed better than European economies and the Eurozone average. This comparison is useful, and not just for boasting rights. Fiscal policy in the USA and in the Eurozone has been dramatically different – The US Federal Government implemented Six very large fiscal stimuli:

The CARES act signed into law by Donald

The bipartisan (Manchin) stimulus enacted In December 2024 signed into law by Donald Trump which included $600 per working family.

The American Rescue plan which included $1400 dollars more signed into law by Biden (who actually kept his $2000 campaign promise amazing as that might be)

The bipartisan Infrastructure Bill

the Bipartisan information technology sector

I have long thought that there is a (partially effective) treatment for opiate addiction — suboxone. To review suboxone is a mixture of buprenorphine and naloxone. Buprenorphine is a partial opiate receptor agonist (activator) which also blocks other opiates. At least when taken orally, it relieves opiate craving but does not make people high and prevents them from getting high with other opiates. Naloxone is the well know opiate antagonist used in emergencies. It is not absorbed from the intestine and must be given intravenously or by a nasal spray. In the case of suboxone it is used so that injected suboxone does not cause euphoria, since the buprenorphine is blocked by the naloxone. In contrast if suboxone is taken orally, the naloxone does not

I have read many articles quoting (brave) Republicans complaining about Donald Trump’s focus on personal, petty and implausible attacks on Kamala Harris. They often assert that if the election were decided on the basis of policy or issues, then Trump would win. Here is the latest discussion I read about that (just the available link and an excellent blog post).

My immediate reaction is to argue that the Republicans’ claim is false and that voters support Democrats’ policy proposals and vote Republican because of identity politics and effective personal attacks. I found a poll which showed much more support for Biden’s proposals than Trump’s. Before going on, I note that it took an extraordinary amount of Googling to find that page. It was buried

Peat bogs capture much more carbon per acre than forests. Currently, peatlands store twice as much carbon as all the world’s forests . One problem is that they are being drained to free up the land. (also but I think less importantly peat and non-rotten sphagnum moss are harvested for gardening). Various sources (most or all of which seem to be advocacy organisations – yes there are pro-bog advocacy organizations) claim that this causes 10% of global carbon emissions. The more nearly neutral Pew Charitable Trust estimates 5%. Either way, this is a huge amount, but also an opportunity to fight climate change by reflooding the now drained bogs.

I am thinking of more than just ceasing this or even restoring natural peatlands. It seems to me that it

This is a second hand story about my brother in law’s experience in a Giant (TM) Supermarket checkout line (I guess he should guest post this). He saw someone checking out wearing a Trump Shirt and started a conversation (he’s like that) mentioning that he was voting for Harris. The Trump supporter said that BIden and Harris had accomplished nothing. When my brother in law (politely I’m sure) noted that he disagreed. The Trump supporters (plural including Giante employee) were not convinced. One asked if he liked an open border. He said it is now very hard to seek asylum. He was asked “where do you get your news?”

In the USA we know that we have very different opinions about facts. We know they depend on which news sources we trust. It

This is actually related to my day job. For some decades I have been puzzled by two of Kahneman and Tversky’s discoveries (reported very well in this excellent book).

First, there is the excessive reliance on diagnostic characteristics (called diagnostic expectations by economists). A classic example is the room with 90 lawyers and 10 engineers. Jim is quiet and hardworking and likes model trains. It is human nature to conclude he is an engineer (fits the stereotype perfectly). However, the data do not in fact outweigh the 9 to 1 ratio. Another is a guy has red hair. How likely is it that he is Irish (not very in the actual human population). In each case there is some diagnostic information. In each case we put too much weight on it compared to

I am late to the discussion of the (possible) US soft landing. I think I better write about the soft landing (so far) in case it is ceasing to be soft (I am not making a forecast).

The remarkable thing is that the dramatic increase in the Federal Funds Rate did not induce a downturn let alone a recession

The way interest rates affect GDP is principally residential investment and exchange rates. Other monetary authorities also raised rates in response to the Covid increase in inflation, so I won’t write about exchange rates. The interest rate relevant to housing demand is the mortgage interest rate. It is very, very different from the Federal funds rate but it also increased dramatically

This odd in itself as all evidence suggests that medium

I have my usual thoughts about inflation. People confuse levels and changes. I think this is a fundamental cognitive illusion. I think perceived inflation and the perceived effect of inflation on real incomes are based on an impressive pair of errors.

1) people estimate inflation from the price level comparing current prices to prices they remember and consider reasonable. As noted by Krugman and Nate Silver, this is not necessarily an error. It might be that they think of inflation over 24 of 36 months. The choice of 12 months is arbitrary. But it means perceived inflation is very persistent  (in your Substack you just argued for monthly and consider the noise by thinking not moving averaging).

2) people think inflation causes lower real

I have been very alarmed by the risk of a Chinese (PRC) invasion of Taiwan (province of the RC). The main reason is that the most

Xi Jin Ping announced that he has instructed his generals (and admirals) to be develope the capicto to invade by 2027 (the 30s anniversary of the return of Hong Kong to the PRC). This does not imply an invasion then.

Landing craft and landing ships (please don’t ask me to explain or define the distinction) would be key to an invasion. What does China have and how have they recently expanding their capacity to land troops and armor ? A Wikipedia article (blush, don’t blame me blame google) updated to early 2024 reports a total of 69 landing ships in active service. This does not strike me as a country preparing

“But then, in 2022“, the Justice Clarence Thomas-authored Bruen decision suggested all gun regulations had to line up with the understanding of firearms the founders had when they wrote the Constitution. “

It seems to me that if Bruen is taken very literally, it implies that the 2nd amendment only applies to muzzle loading firearms: muskets, rifles, and pistols. The founders did not imagine AR15s. How could they have regulated (or forbid regulation of) semi-automatics?

Well here I am typing about a topic where I am ignorant and many people aren’t. Let’s go. There are small c conservative rules that all judges at least pretend to accept. Respect for precedent (and binding precedents except for the Supreme court) and respect for judicial norms and

Drones are changing warfare. They are cheap and deadly. I am thinking about their use in stopping a marine invasion. The reason is that I am concerned that it is not clear enough to Xi JinPing that an invasion of Taiwan would be a huge error.

The problem with anti-ship drones is that they are attacking a target with anti-aircraft defences and one which can survive some explosions. I think this means that a very large number of drones must converge on the ship (or ships defending each other).

At least first I will discuss flying drones (although recent news shows the importance of drone boats) A lcurrent limit on mass attacks with drones is the limited number of human controlers and control stations. I think it makes sense to have a

One of the policies with the greatest effect on poverty is the ild tax credit (expanded and made fully refundable by the American Reesue Plan). It caused a 44% reduction of child poverty. UNfortunately it was a tempory one year program (approptiate for stimulus bu not for an always needed prgram). It was not renewed and there was a huge increase in povertyThis is a hugely important policy issue (currently totally impossible with GOP control of the House). There was not overwhelming support for the program — fully refundable sounds like welfare. To be blunt, some of the money went to African Americans.

I think there is a rhetorical trick which might maybe even work. I think the history of generous child credits suggests that fighting poverty was

SIlver or lead was something Pablo Escobar liked to say. It means do what I want and I will give you money (plata) if you don’t I will use lead to kill someone close to you. I just noticed that it is the Spanish translation of a debate the US should have about the apparent failure of the Great Society (Johnson;s expansion of the New Deal).

In the conventional analysis the hero is Clinton (if one is a moderate Democrat) Reagan (as always, if one is a Republican). The story is that over generous social welfare caused people to treat the safety net as a hammock with very serious long-term consequences. The evidence for this is the dramatic increase in violent crime, drug abuse and teenage pregnancy which began in the 60s and continued until around

Oddly I am back here posting. Even more oddly I am posting on the topic I am paid to address. I start by noting two things. About one year ago, many macroeconomic forecasters predicted that a recession would have started by now in the USA. I forget who placed the probability at 100%. In spite of sltightly disappointing 0.4% (1.6% if annualized) real GDP growth in the first quarter of 2024, we are not in a recesion. What went right ?

The presumed cause of a recession was the sharp shift to contractionary monetary policy in a effort to fight inflation.

In this post, I will focus mostly on domestic demand. Briefly, high interest rates can cause a recession by causing an appreciation of the national currency which causes a sharp decline in net

“U.S. officials say they believe Hamas has been constrained by the Israeli operations, but that Israel will not be able to achieve, in the foreseeable future, its goal of eliminating the group’s military capability.”

also

“An Israeli military intelligence official, who spoke on condition of anonymity under military protocol, said that Israel was engaged in a comprehensive mission to unravel Hamas’s military capabilities.

“Is it possible this mission will be left for my children?” he said. “The answer is yes.””

and “Current and former Israeli officials said Israeli forces would most likely continue to sweep northern Gaza to tamp down the Hamas insurgency for the foreseeable future, at least until there was some kind of political

His honor assumes a fact not in evidence.

Ruth Marcus has an important op-ed which cites strong evidence that the party of the president who nominated federal judges helps one predict their opinions. I will fair use the important part.

“Now comes an intriguing study by a Harvard Law School professor that buttresses my point: If anything, it suggests we have underestimated the impact of party affiliation on judicial outcomes. Alma Cohen, whose training is as an economist, examined 630,000 federal appeals court cases from 1985 to 2020 and found that the impact of party affiliation went far beyond hot-button issues such as guns or abortion.

Rather, she wrote, “the political affiliations of panel judges can help predict outcomes in a broad set

This will be a long boring post amplifying on my slogan “asymptotically we will all be dead.”

I assert that asymptotic theory and asymptotic approximations have nothing useful to contribute to the study of statistics. I therefore reject that vast bul of mathematical statistics as absolutely worthless.

To stress the positive, I think useful work is done with numerical simulations — monte carlos in which pseudo data are generated with pseudo random number generators and extremely specific assumptions about data generating processes, statistics are calculated, then the process is repeated at least 10,000 times and the pseudo experimental distribution is examined. A problem is that computers only understand simple precise instructions. This means

One of the most reliable lazy pundit columns Democrats in disarray and the related warning that Democrats have to watch out for the damage done by the McGovern wing of the party. Lazy pundits have a problem as Democrats are in array and only aging boomers such as myself remember 1972 (even older boomer Michael Kinsley noted that it is odd that the party which nominated Richard Nixon isn’t the one constantly apologizing for the mistake they made in 1972).

The new warning is about the danger poseed by the squad. A problem is that the left most Demorats in Congress have not created any trouble for other Democrats. A challenge – when was the last time the Democrats had trouble whipping votes because of extremists. Another is how many minutes have

I learn from Brad DeLong (nickname delong run) that Paul Schmelzing has gone to a truly heroic effort and estimated safe real interest rates since 1310!

The main point is the long slow decline (it is ironic that one of the stylized growth “facts” is that there is no clear trend in real interest rates. Brad discusses this at length at his SubStack. Oddly, although he is one of the Efficient Markets Hypothesis’s worst enemies not named Robert Shiller, he uses an Euler curve as his benchmark model.

I believe that the Euler curve has nothing useful to tell us about consumption/savings decisions in the real world (that it is not at all a useful approximation to reality – no link as Google has converted my classic Google site to a worthless new

The Republican Party has demonstrated it’s subservience to Donald Trump and rejection of policy making as such. In a sane country, this would doom the party to a very long period in opposition, but I am a citizen of the country I have not the country I want. I think the issues are well known, but I will attempt a brief review.

First, while most Republicans in Congress agree that the US should aid Ukraine, some side with Putin. More importantly, many who agree that Ukraine must be aided also insisted on concessions from Democrats in exchange for that aid (see avoiding default and keeping the federal government open). Democrats caved and accepted a fairly extreme border security/less immigration component of a bipartisan compromise bill. They gave

Don’t you hate it when you have a great title and no post to go with it.

Here is a link

In the Washington Post David Lynch (no not that David Lynch) reports that “Falling inflation, rising growth give U.S. the world’s best recovery.”

lternative titles

Handling the blue team with velvet gloves

(not used as it alleges bias when the article merely reports the facts without Ballance (TM) for once)

Twin Peaks (inflation and GDP not used as it might invite a downturn and I am superstitious)

The excellent article (just click the link) is mostly straight reporting with some discussion of the advantages of FIscal Policy relative to monetary policy. As a QEx skeptic (for x>1) I am very pleased by “Congressional actions can affect the economy faster than the lagged impact of a change in borrowing costs and are more certain than the

This is mainly belated comentary on “How a Ragtag Militia in Yemen Became a Nimble U.S. Foe”

I think there are lessons to be learned from the success of the Houthi militia in Yemen. The lesson I learn is the lesson I claim to have learned again and again — most US defence spending is wasted, because a huge amount is spent on expensive platforms rather than on smart munitions launched from lots of cheap platforms (drones and missiles *again*).

First, I think it is useful to look back a bit at the recent (and horrible) past. There is now mostly near peace in Yemen after years of bloody war pitting the Houthi militia against the internationally recognised Yemeni government and, more importantly, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

My quest to detect evidence that the New York Times actually employs copy editors has arrived at success (a day late and an apology short).

TI just discovered that today this article begins with the not absurdly incorrect abstract “Five universities have agreed to pay $104.5 million to settle a lawsuit accusing them of violating an agreement to be “need-blind” when admitting students.”

Recently it began with the absurd abstract which I immedately screen captured.

Now the assertion that they promised “‘need blind’” “financial aid” does bring the word blind to mind, but I would have imagined that any copy editor of normal intelligence (or with a mild to moderate mental handicap) would have noticed that it is nonsense.

What is going on at

By “here” I refer to my home town Washington DC. The answer, obviously, is that Binyamin Netanyahu is in charge there. At least he has much more influence over US Federal Government spending than the guy wincing in the photo. Both Biden and Netanyahu know that Netanyahu has much more support in the US Congress than Biden and both understand that Congress can control spending, sometimes by over riding vetos.

Biden has the impossible task of attempting to conduct US foreign policy (with the advice and consent of the Senate) when that involves dealing with someone who has more influence over US policy than he does. Importantly, they both understand this perfectly.

Netanyahu is powerful, because he has the support of a narrow majority in the

Just below, I express my shock caused by the disappearance of basic copy editing, blocking, and tackling at The New York TImes, but, in this article, I want to discuss substance.

The article on what President Nixon did in 1979 is, aside from that little slip, very interesting. It notes that people in Taiwan are worried about Xi Jin Ping (rationally) and don’t trust the USA to protect them (very very rational).

However, they don’t seem to feel the need to do much about these problems. “Not that he or other officials are solely lobbying for help. Taiwan’s 2024 budget included a jump in military spending to 2.5 percent of gross domestic product, or $19 billion. But its leaders have been slow to shift toward the drones, missiles and other

I will get to an actual policy discussion in part II of this pair of posts, but first I have to ask “what the hell is happening at the New York Times”? I am old enough to remember a time when it had actual editors, but the Journal of Record seems to be edited about as much as my posts here (spelll check if you are lucky).

First it seems that  Damien Cave and Amy Chang Chien believe that Richard Nixon was president of the USA in 1979. I insert a screen capture in case some sort of editor shows up some time

RIchard Nixon visited the PRC but, when he left office, the USA still recognized the Republic of China (and its claim of authority over, among all the others, Taiwan province of the Republic of China. The USA later recognized the People’s

In 1980 I had a long argument with an unfortunate guy who didn’t just say “let’s agree to disagree” which sometimes works. He was arguing that the US should build B-1s, then the weapon of the future. I argued that the US should rely on Tomahawk missiles (launched from B-52s) which I asserted were the weapon of the future.

It is now what was in 1980 the future and guess what weapon was used yesterday (hint it wasn’t a B-1 bomber).

I love to say “I told you so” however, in this case I can’t. I can type “I told him so” and just did

Tags: Tomahawk missiles

Fireworks, drone swarms, military history and the military future. Oh and China always China.

This is a followup to

The 101st Chairborn: History is a Prankster

The key new point is drone *swarms* that is thousands of drones in coordinated flight. the point is that e even if a drone is slow so that the chance of shooting it down is 99.99%, the chance of shooting down all of 10,000 isn’t (0.9999)^10000 = 1/e because the drones draw fire from each other and overwhelm the defence.

Now the key is to control 10,000 drones without 10,000 human drone operators. To do this one must have say 100 drone operators each of which controls a drone which is somehow followed by 99 other drones.

Something like this has been displayed, say of the 4th of