The Angry Bear

JOLTS report for January: the game of employment musical chairs continues The Census Bureau JOLTS report for January, released this morning, indicates that the jobs market continues to be nowhere near equilibrium – which continues to be a good thing for workers’ wages.   Several months ago I introduced the idea of a game similar to musical chairs, where employers added or took away chairs, and employees tried to best allocate themselves...

Jobless claims continue low, but lows for this expansion likely already past Initial claims (blue) rose 11,000 to 227,000 (vs. the pandemic low of 188,000 on December 4). The 4 week average (red) rose 500 to 231,250 (vs. the pandemic low of 199,750 on December 25). Continuing claims (gold, right scale) increased 18,000 to  1,494,000, (vs. 1,474,000 two weeks ago, which was the lowest number in over 50 years): We have probably seen the lows...

Nuclear strategy podcast I recommend this podcast on nuclear strategy and Ukraine from 538. Why caution about escalation? It appears that President Biden and his team have done a masterful job rallying our allies and Americans to the Ukrainian cause, countering Putin’s propaganda efforts, putting in place a strong sanctions regime, etc.  He also (rightly) resisted actions he viewed as potentially dangerous escalation, especially calls for a...

RJS, MarketWatch 666, including estimates on the hit to GDP . . . the December deficit was revised up to what would have been a record high at the same time. US Trade Deficit Rose 9.4% to a Record High in January After December Deficit Revised Higher Our trade deficit rose 9.4% in January, as the value of our exports decreased while the value of our imports increased . . . the Commerce Dept report on our international trade in goods and...

Selling Mrs. Conspicuous Consumption In Selling Mrs. Consumer, Christine Frederick shilled for progressive obsolescence, which had been advocated the previous year in an article by her husband, J. George Frederick. Or at least that is the way it seemed to her biographer, Janice Rutherford, who wrote, “she now took up and elaborated upon his theme, even using the same words…”  Even using the same words?! It is possible that Mrs. Frederick copied...

The good folks over at the National Weather Service have posted that La Nina, the ENSO negative Pacific Ocean pattern is here to stay for a threepeat. What this typically means for us in the US is that we are looking at drought. More drought. From the Texas South to the Dakota’s. This also means more rainfall in northern spots, flooding in the Ohio River Valley, much like we saw in Tennessee last year, and an uptick in hurricane activity coming...

RJS, Focus on Fracking, The Latest US Oil Supply and Disposition Data from the EIA US oil data from the US Energy Information Administration for the week ending March 4th indicated that even after a big drop in our oil exports and an increase in our oil imports, we had to pull oil out of our stored commercial crude supplies for the eleventh time in 15 weeks and for the 27th time in the past forty-one weeks because of a big increase in demand that...

The Iran Nuclear Deal And The Ukraine Invasion  At New Year’s I disagreed with forecasts made by David Ignatius that Putin would fully invade Ukraine and that the JCPOA nuclear deal with Iran would be revived. I have been proven wrong on the first matter already. As of a week or more ago, it looked like I would be about the second as well as reports had a revived deal nearly made, which I would like to see. But now it looks like it may fall...

A Footnote to IT WAS BEDLAM! Lewis Corey was a pseudonym for Louis Fraida, one of the founders of the U.S. Communist Party. In a letter to Marcuse dated August 16, 1960, Raya Dunayevskaya replied at length to his request for references to the American literature dealing with the issues of “the transformation of the laboring class under the impact of rationalization, automation and particularly, the higher standard of living.” This was in...