The Angry Bear

July real retail sales show more stagnation, but slightly positive YoY Consumption leads employment. Increasing demand for goods and services leads employers to hire more people to fulfill that demand. That, in a nutshell, is the biggest reason why real retail sales is one of my favorite economic indicators. In July, nominal retail sales increased by less than 0.1%, rounding to 0. Consumer prices declined by less than -0.1%, also rounding...

Doherty Labs out of North Carolina State University offers some insights: Research that addresses rice yield losses is important because rice is an essential crop for feeding hundreds of millions of people each year – and because a changing climate poses challenges for global food security. “Warmer nights throw the rice plant’s internal clock out of whack,” says Colleen Doherty, an associate professor of biochemistry at North Carolina State...

Industrial production heats up in July If the news in the housing sector this morning was bad, the news from the King of Coincident Indicators, industrial production, was quite good. Total production rose 0.6% to a new all-time high. Manufacturing production rose 0.7%, and is below its April peak by only -0.1%: Barring downward revisions, this, together with the latest blockbuster employment report, makes it *very* unlikely that the US was...

This is a 100% copy and paste as taken from Steve Schmidt’s Substack “The Warning. “Friday reflections: ‘Letter to an American'” (substack.com) I thought you might enjoy a good read. Certain versions I have access to which I am allowed to share. ~~~~~~~~ I read this letter for the first time in the museum behind Utah Beach. Sometimes it helps to see the present by looking back.  Americans should have extraordinary gratitude for the...

I haven’t heard much recently about the horrors of cancel culture or efforts to teach critical race theory to 5 year olds, or about the latest trans panic or “don’t say gay” law, or about defund the police or abolish ICE. Maybe it’s just me.  But there are reasons to suspect it’s real, and that abortion is pushing other culture war issues aside.  There are several ways this could happen. Republican state legislators may be too busy restricting...

climate and the environment edition This week, a number of articles in My In-Box were about climate and the environment. Seeking Alpha was featuring Michael Smith’s “The Future of Farming,” on their site. Recognizing AB authors is not unusual. Climate and Environment “The U.S. could see a new ‘extreme heat belt’ by 2053” (nbcnews.com), Denise Chow and Nigel Chiwaya, An “extreme heat belt” reaching as far north as Chicago is taking shape, a...

I (run75441) saw this article on MSN early (AZ time) this morning and sent it off to Dale. For those of you who may not have been around. Dale Coberly, Bruce Webb and Arne would discuss Social Security and how to save it. You also may not know it; Dale and Bruce proposed the Northwest Plan to a NJ Congressional Representative who forwarded it on to the Social Security Administration. In turn, SS replied. it could work. I was not privy to much of...

Housing permits, starts, and units under construction telegraph a deeper economic decline ahead Housing had another negative month in July. Permits (gold in the graph below) declined -1.3% to 1.674 units annualized, an 8 month low. Single family permits (red, right scale) declined -4.3% to 928,000 units annualized, the lowest since January 2020 except for the pandemic lockdown months. And the three month average of starts (blue) declined to...

Housing affordability: at or near the worst this Millennium The NAR calculates a monthly “housing affordability index,” which estimates the median mortgage payment for the median priced existing home based on an estimate of median household income. For June that came in at 98.5: Not only has affordability deteriorated sharply this year, but the June reading was the lowest in over 20 years, i.e., even worse than at the peak of the housing...