The Angry Bear

Initial jobless claims get closer to signaling recession  – by New Deal democrat Today is one of those data-palooza days, so I’ll put up separate posts on personal income and spending, and the ISM manufacturing report and construction spending reports later. But let’s start with weekly jobless claims, and the news here is OK for the week, but the trend is troublesome. Initial claims declined -16,000 from last week’s 3 month high to...

Inflation is defined as a significant increase in the price of most goods and services in an economy over a short period of time. No controversy. Or, is there? And, … since inflation is likely but an effect, a symptom; the real question might should be, “What are the causes of inflation?” It is always better to address the cause rather than the symptom, is it not? Sometimes, in hard times when there isn’t enough money to go around, in an effort to...

Infidel753: No complacency after the election Democrats have every right to celebrate the results of this month’s election.  The red wave fizzled out.  The Republicans took the House majority by only a tiny margin, which will be rendered unworkable by their own flaming-nutball fringe.  Democrats held the Senate and will probably get to 51-49 after the Georgia runoff.  Election denialists lost almost every race, and except in Arizona, there has...

Healthcare and the Environment appear to be the issues talked about in this installment of links. It was pretty clear this week in what showed up in my In-Box. Two of the topics I marked and suggesting you might read them. One is Healthcare Insurance Claim denial. The other is Solar Panel efficiency. I am not surprised healthcare insurance is denying claims because they can. The longer they can delay a payout the more money they make. The...

October JOLTS report shows continued deceleration in jobs market, with continuing gap in job openings filled  – by New Deal democrat For the past year, I have likened the jobs market to a game of reverse musical chairs, where there are more chairs than players. Some chairs are always left empty. The chairs are jobs, and the players are job seekers. Since the lowest paying jobs have always been left empty, there is tremendous pressure to raise...

“November 29, 2022,” Letters from an American, Prof. Heather Cox Richardson Today, after an eight-week trial and three days of deliberations, a jury of five women and seven men found Elmer Stewart Rhodes III, 57, the founder and leader of the right-wing Oath Keepers gang, and Kelly Meggs, 53, who led the Florida chapter of the Oath Keepers, guilty of seditious conspiracy and other charges related to the January 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol....

– by New Deal democrat House price indexes continue to show the top is in The FHFA and Case Shiller house price indexes were reported this morning, with both continuing to show that the peak in house prices took place during the summer. For the month, the seasonally adjusted FHFA index rose +0.1%, vs. a +0.9% increase one year ago, and following two months of -0.6% and -0.7%, respectively. The Case Shiller national index declined -0.5%,...

Just doing a review of the potential strike being by railroad workers. To sum up the issue(s), proposed wage increases barely keep up with inflation, health care premiums nearly doubling, and a lack of paid sick days in the agreement. It doesn’t sound like that much of a big deal. More in a bit. In recent years, railroads reduced the workforce by 30%. Or, a smaller workforce is moving more freight. Smaller workforce results in less Overhead and...

by Joseph Joyce The Struggle for Hegemony The restrictions by the Biden administration on the sale of semiconductor chips and the equipment to manufacture them represent a new stage in the division between China and the U.S. The belief that increased trade would lead to a convergence of Chinese and U.S. interests faded years ago. The history of globalization shows clearly that the chances of Chinese as well as Russian acceptance of a liberal...

New home sales adjusted for cancellations: still signs that a bottoming process might be taking place by NewDeal democrat I had a correspondent question me about whether new home sales might actually be in the process of bottoming, due to the big increase in the percentage of cancellations, as shown below (via Bill McBride): This is something I’ve been aware of, and commented on one month ago in the context of housing that was permitted but...