The Angry Bear

September existing home sales and prices decline  – by New Deal democrat With the exception of their big impact on prices, I do not particularly pay attention to existing home sales. Their economic impact is small compared with the construction of new homes; at best they add confirmation to a trend in new home sales, permits, and starts. In September, existing home sales did continue to decline, by 2%, to 4.71 million units annualized (Note:...

Jobless claims flat for the moment  – by New Deal democrat There’s no big news in the jobless claims release this week. Initial claims fell -12,000 to 214,000, but the 4 week average increased 1,250 to 212,250. Continuing claims, which lag somewhat, increased 21,000 to 1,385,000: To the extent there is any discernible trend, I would call it sideways in the past few weeks. I had expected gas prices to continue to rise following OPEC’s...

With regard to the Albertson – Kroger merger.   CEPR’s Eileen Appelman discusses a private equity profit scheme involving the Kroger/Albertsons grocery megamerger. Albertsons will pay out about a third of its market value to its former private equity owners and investors in November as part of the merger with Kroger. The large payment sets up Albertsons for bankruptcy which Kroger can use to defend the merger. Appelbaum” “‘Albertson’s...

If one were to look in the U.S. Constitution for the meaning of ‘Originalism’, they wouldn’t find it. It’s not there. It wasn’t anywhere until the U.S. Supreme Court’s Brown vs Board of Education (1954). ‘Originalism’ originated with segregationists opposed to the decision. Since, it has been heard a lot from white supremacists, white southern politicians, racists, and bigots. Been heard a lot from the Federalists Society and the Republican Party...

I haven’t paid a lot of attention to the controversy surrounding Congressional stock trading, but 1) I assume it’s a real problem and 2) it’s obviously going to be very difficult to get a strong reform bill through Congress.  So here’s a proposal:  why not craft a strong bill – bright line rules, no exceptions – that will take effect in 10 years?  Of course, it would be best to enact a strong bill today, but given the difficulties involved, why...

Great insight: Putin continues to demonstrate just how easy it is to manipulate narcissists. https://t.co/ngaird6ugK— Julia Ioffe (@juliaioffe) October 19, 2022Who else can we add to the list?  Trump, Musk.  Anyone else?

Two of the most knowledgeable economists discussing events leading up to this year’s high inflation and the resulting interest rates. Of course, the Fed is reacting to the high inflation rates. If we look out into the future, probably early next year for a recession. OER should not be used by the Fed in setting policy. The Fed is currently chasing a phantom lagging menace. “Actual* rents and house prices lead the CPI measures by about a year.”...

This just popped up (October 19, 2022) at Scotus Blog. Just as expected the right filed to block student loan relief. Initially filing at the 7th District COA and another filing to SCOTUS just in case they lose at the 7th District. Apparently, they feel it is unfair students get any relief to loans which if they were car loans, etc., they could receive bankruptcy relief. In effect, denial of bankruptcy for these types of loans discriminates against...

Housing on track for an early 2023 recession, but with a major caveat  – by New Deal democrat I don’t think anybody was expecting a good housing construction report this month. Those non-expectations were certainly fulfilled. Housing permits rose slightly, 1.4%, from last month’s 2 year low. Single family permits, which contain even more signal, declined -3.1% to the lowest level in 3 years excluding two pandemic lockdown months. The more...