The Angry Bear

More on deteriorating tax withholding receipts and jobs reports  – by New Deal democrat I have a new post up at Seeking Alpha, laying out all of the short leading indicators, and concluding conditions have now been met for a recession to begin at any point in the next 6 months. There’s one graph I intended to use which didn’t make it through to the final published piece. Here it is: Typically recessions have only begun when 8 of the 10...

“Open thread Nov. 18, 2022,” Angry Bear, angry bear blog.

What matters most to families, moms who have to make things happen, and dads who struggle to provide for their family. This is a rerun from “Annie Asks You” emphasizing our job is not done. The work is unfinished and for a brief moment we came close. We are not done. I hope you enjoy the read. “Moms, Kids, and the Makeup of Congress,” annieasksyou…, August 12, 2022 In this intolerable heat, I’ve been thinking a lot about poor single moms and...

Coronavirus dashboard for Thanksgiving week 2022  – by New Deal democrat As we start Thanksgiving week, let’s take a look at the current state of COVID. The Alphabet Soup of variants (most of which are direct descendants of BA.5), primarily BQ.1&1.1, has largely displaced their parent, which is down to 24% of all cases: Typically new waves have peaked when the displaced variant is down to 10% or so of all cases, which should be the...

Peter Dorman at Econospeak The Anti-Racism of Fools Antisemitism has long been intermingled with movements against injustice and elite control.  This is because the most widespread image in the mind of antisemites is the existence of a secretive cabal of Jews who control global finance and promote liberal-sounding ideas only because it serves their nefarious goals.  Hatred of Jews therefore deflects radical inclinations that might otherwise...

New Deal Democrat’s Weekly Indicators for November 14 – 18 at Seeking Alpha  – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. It had to happen sooner or later. Earlier this year, based on the long leading indicators, I went on “Recession Watch.” Now, for the first time in a very long time, I have escalated to “Recession Warning.” I believe there is much more than a 50/50 chance of a recession beginning in the next 6...

(Dan here…lifted from One handed Economist by David Zetland’s Interesting Stuff) Read: “…because of how people actually use Twitter, the lines between “comedy club” and “town square” and “room full of monetizable user data that drive advertising revenue” aren’t always apparent.” Related: “From being asked to review every product you buy to believing that every tweet or Instagram image warrants likes or comments or follows, social media produced a...

“Social Security and Medicare finances bolstered by growing economy,” (axios.com), Neil Irwin. Two different pieces of information going on here. The pie chart below shows were we were in 2021 for Medicare. I have not compared the pieces of information to see if they conflict. I do not have charts for Social Security, I can only imagine in my head the outcome. A million people died so the funds go to the living. The trustees of the programs...

(Dan here…Hat tip to Peter Dorman for the notice and Anonymous for the link at Econospeak) [embedded content] Tags: Gonzo Jornakism, Hunter Thomson

Existing home sales decline to recessionary levels; prices have clearly turned down; low inventory still a problem  – by New Deal democrat As I wrote earlier this morning, my primary interest in existing home sales at this point is prices. [Note: graphs below for sales and prices does not include October] For the record, existing home sales fell to a new 2.5 year low (i.e., since the teeth of the pandemic lockdowns) of 4.430 million...