The Angry Bear

by David Zetland (originally published at The one handed economist) The iceberg of identity How do you describe yourself to others? Me? I am a white American 53-year old male, of average height and weight, mostly white hair (a touch of pepper), green-blue eyes, and a decent tan. That description is perhaps 90 percent of my outside appearance, but 10 percent of my interior spirit, mind and soul. I’ve eaten out of dumpsters (for 2...

Weekly Indicators for January 23 – 27 at Seeking Alpha  – by New Deal democrat “Slowly I turn. Step by step . . .” That old Vaudeville bit comes to mind in watching the coincident indicators creep towards a recessionary downturn on a weekly basis. Also, some of the long leading indicators are also creeping in the direction of  no longer being negative. Which is a longer way to say, my Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. As...

Politicians may have headed off their strike, but rail workers haven’t stopped organizing for paid sick leave, safe staffing, and time off. AFL-CIO Transportation Trades Department: “The American people should know that while this round of collective bargaining is over, the underlying issues facing the workforce and rail customers remain,” As take from: “Here’s How Rail Workers Are Fighting On After Biden Blocked a National Strike,” In...

Good news and bad news on personal income and spending  – by New Deal democrat December personal income and spending had some material for both optimists and pessimists. Let’s look at the good news first, mainly having to do with inflation. Both the total and core personal consumption deflator continued their overall deceleration in December, with the former up +0.3% for the month, and the latter, said to be much beloved by the Fed, up just...

California Ranked #1 for Gun Safety, Death Rate 37% Lower than National Average In 2021, California was ranked as the #1 state for population and gun safety by Giffords Law Center, and the state saw a 37% lower gun death rate than the national average. According to the CDC, California’s gun death rate was the 44th lowest in the nation, with 8.5 gun deaths per 100,000 people – compared to 13.7 deaths per 100,000 nationally, 28.6 in Mississippi,...

Q4 2022 GDP positive, but both long leading components continue negative  – by New Deal democrat Here’s my last note for this morning. Real Q4 GDP came in at +0.7%, or +2.8% annualized. While this is lower than most quarters in the past several years, as shown below: Although not shown (due to the huge pandemic swings), it would have been slightly above average for any quarter in the 10 years that predated the pandemic. But as usual,...

Durable goods orders come in mixed; leaving only employment indicators as short term positives for the economy  – by New Deal democrat Manufacturers’ durable goods orders, and in particular “core” orders, which exclude defense and transportation (a/k/a Boeing), are (albeit noisy) a short leading indicator. I normally don’t pay too much attention to them because of that noise, and because they are less reliable than other indicators; but until...

The 2023 ACA Open Enrollment Period is the best ever. The prime reason being the expansion of enhanced premium subsidies, first introduced in 2021 via the American Rescue Plan. ACA premiums became less costly for those who were already qualified. The lower pricing of ACA plans resulted in the expansion of eligibility to millions who were not previously eligible. The ARP ACA expansion will continue for at least another 3 years under the Inflation...

Jobless claims continue recent strong streak Programming note: I’ll put up separate posts on durable goods orders, real manufacturing and trade sales, and the Q4 GDP reports later. Initial jobless claims have been the best performing – and perhaps only positive – element of the short leading indicators in the past few months. And that continued in this morning’s report. Initial claims declined -6,000 to 186,000, the lowest number since last...

“Arizona: It Was the Best of Times, It Was the Worst of Times“, Substack, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar I ran across this substack a few weeks ago. The majestic and excellent basketball player I had watched play a wicked game of ball, can also write good articles. Since I now live in Arizona where the politics differ from my own, I thought this one article on two topics was especially interesting. The new Governor is dismantling the sea-container wall...