The Angry Bear

Can he be recalled? NoCan he be charged with a crime for lying about his bio? NoCan the House of Representatives refuse to seat him? NoHowever:He can face criminal and civil fraud charges for lying on documents submitted to government entities and investors.He could be extradited to Brazil to face criminal charges there.He could be censured or expelled by the House.There is approximately zero chance that Kevin McCarthy and his band of merry...

Herb Gintis, 1940-2023 Peter Dorman @ Econospeak My dissertation chair, Herb Gintis, died yesterday in Northampton, Mass.  We didn’t stay in touch after I graduated—our interests and perspectives diverged—but I will always appreciate what he gave of himself at a difficult time in my life. After my first dissertation went awry (don’t ask!), Herb, who had been on my committee, stepped in and helped me identify a new topic.  I had to learn a...

Some history and knowledge about the House by Weldon @ Bad Crow Review. Known Weldon for a while now. He writes some good words. And this topic fits right in his wheelhouse of knowledge. Enjoy . . . “How Long Before This Wears Off, Doc?” Weldon Berger, Bad Crow Review, “Could be a year, could be a lifetime . . .” Links are at the end. I’m pretty sure some of the fireworks which look white to me are actually some feeble shade of green....

Follow the money’s good. But, sometimes, looking for the me(s) in what’s in it for me works better. Trump wanted something from Kevin. Marjorie did too; was among the first to make her deal. Then, Matt, Paul, Scott, Lauren, and Andy (after being together on C-Span for four days, all of us are on a first name basis). As for the ‘what’s in it for me’ part? A lot. For Paul, Scott, and ‘I’m so out of here Louis’; maybe hard time. Maybe so for Kevin...

AB is about a day late on this commentary by Peter. Still a great commentary and read. Why the Battle over Electing a House Speaker by Peter Dorman @ Econospeak I don’t know how this will turn out, and maybe what I’m about to say will be disproved by events, but here goes: I think the Republicans face a difficulty in electing a Speaker that the Democrats wouldn’t have, and it will be hard to overcome.  Democrats may disagree intensely,...

December jobs report: good headlines, but deceleration continues    – by New Deal democrat If the long leading indicators all last year, and the majority of the short leading indicators from the past few months are to be believed, a recession is near. And if that is the case, we ought to see the leading elements of the jobs report begin to roll over. One of them, the average manufacturing workweek, clearly has. Arguably so has temporary...

Open thread Dec. 30, 2022, Angry Bear, angry bear blog Tags: open thread

Ukraine is getting much more advanced offensive weapons . . . This seems to mark a major shift, a commitment to helping Ukraine go on offense and win.  Open questions . . . How far will Ukraine’s partners go?  Infantry fighting vehicles today, maybe tanks, ATACMs, planes, etc. tomorrow?  How big a threat is the Republican controlled House of Representatives?  Will Ukraine be able to avoid a drawn out war of attrition?  Can it launch successful...

Infidel753: The ten most important events of 2022, Infidel753 Blog 1. The Ukraine war.  It’s sometimes hard to judge which event ranks most important in a given year, but this time, there was no question.  Putin’s invasion of Ukraine showed that his regime aspires to territorial expansion by crude, naked military force, a throwback to the pre-1945 order which we thought the world had cast off forever.  It showed that a medium-size nation...

December manufacturing, new orders both decline further, to readings even more on the cusp of recession  – by New Deal democrat I described last month’s ISM manufacturing reading as being one “on the cusp of recession.” Well, this month’s reading was even cusp-ier. To recapitulate, this index has a very long and reliable history. Going back almost 75 years, the new orders index has always fallen below 50 within 6 months before a recession....