The Angry Bear

This popped up on “Letters from an American” just last night. I was too tired to read Prof. Heather Cox-Richardson’s article. So, I missed out on a good message about the income of America’s population. This is a recent commentary by the not-so nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office in September 2022. The thrust of the article? “Trends in the Distribution of Family Wealth, 1989 to 2019.” Prof. Heather Cox-Richardson’s Introduction; Since...

The positive trend in jobless claims continues For still another week, initial jobless claims continued their recent downtrend. Initial claims declined -16,000 to 193,000, a 5 month low. The 4 week average also declined -8,750 to a new 4 month low of 207,000. Continuing claims, which lag somewhat, declined -29,000 to a 2.5 month low of 1,347,000: The downtrend of the past 2 months is almost certainly a positive side-effect of lower gas...

by Joseph Joyce (Capital Ebbs and Flows) Has the Third Era of Globalization Ended? Behind the headlines forecasting a global economic recession there is another narrative about the end of globalization. This reflects political tensions over trade, the impact of the pandemic on global supply chains and the shutdown of economic ties with Russia. But dating the beginning and end of the most recent era of the integration of global markets poses...

This is my second post on the recent troubles with Sterling. In the first, I discussed vibes, mood, and animal spirits. I do think that is the best way to think about what’s going on, but I promised to write as an economist typically do (not as we all our in this case). The basic facts are that Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng announced a mini-budget revision including elimination of the 45% income tax bracket. Oddly many financiers who would directly...

Interest rates, the yield curve, and the Fed chasing a Phantom (lagging) Menace There’s a lot going on with interest rates in the past few days. Mortgage rates have increased above 7%: This is the highest rate since 2008. Needless to say, if it lasts for any period of time it will further damage the housing market. The yield curve has almost completely inverted from 3 years out (lower bar on left; upper bar shows a similar curve in April...

I really have to write about macroeconomics given the drama across the Channel in the UK. The story so far is that New Prime Minister Liz Truss and Chancellor of the Exchequer Kwasi Kwarteng have managed to spook money managers by threatening to cut their taxes . Kwarteng proposed a mini budget cutting the top marginal tax rate (etc). The Pound depreciated not quite reaching parity with the dollar (fell bellow 104 cents though) and the 10 year...

Yea, I know. Who the hell is Mallory McMorrow. First let me explain Lana Theis. Lana is a state senator representing the Michigan state district I lived in when I was near Brighton, Brighton Michigan. Lana is Republican and was pretty much protected from being replaced due to state gerrymandering. You may remember her as the Michigan Republican state senator who falsely described McMorrow as a “groomer” in an April fundraising email. In the...

I am not an attorney; although, I have been in all levels of state and federal courts including Certs to SCOTUS. I had to learn by default to get my points across at times. Neither am I to be trifled with if you choose to make BS statements. I found this SCOTUS article to be interesting as I am seeing similar as an average citizen sitting on the sidelines wondering what plague has infected the courts. Judge Aileen Cannon is a knowledgeable person...

I am not a classical liberal, but classical liberals are right about some things.  In a sane world they could play a valuable role by challenging the thinking of social democrats, welfare state liberals, and others who believe the state has an important role to play in economic affairs.  We all need to be kept honest. But for decades, classical liberalism has been debased by the economic extremism of its adherents and their willing association...

Neofascist Giorgia Meloni will be the next Italian Prime minister. I feel I have to write about this being in Rome, but I am clueless as to how it happened (I wasn’t optimistic a year ago – I was expecting authoritarian xenophobe demagogue Matteo Salvini to be the next Italian prime minister — I guess the photo of him wearing a Vladimir Putin T-shirt when on Red Square might have cost him the authoritarian but not that authoritarian vote). A much...