The Angry Bear

Long leading indicators embedded in Q2 GDP suggest a recession is near at hand  – by New Deal democrat Where does the economy go from here?  If it’s not in recession, it isn’t doing much better. There are two components of GDP which are helpful in finding out what lies ahead: real residential fixed investment (housing) and proprietors income (a proxy for business profits). Both of these have long and good track records as helping forecast the...

The conceit of the article on ivermectin by Hooper and Henderson I discussed in my prior post is that medical authorities – mostly the FDA, but also Merck, the maker of ivermectin – are wrongly denying that ivermectin is an effective treatment for COVID.  They raise some issues that are worth discussing.  For example, they talk about the lack of incentive for companies to do clinical trials on existing, off-patent drugs, and about the way FDA...

“Peabody’s Improbable History” Making a short trip in the Wayback Machine to October 2019.   We are going to a right-wing “AMPFests” at one of former president thump’s golf clubs, the National Doral. And we are looking for two trump conspirators having a discussion with one another. One of them has a wire recording device mistaking recoding their conversation. The conversation was captured via a microphone on Roger Stone’s lapel used by a...

Increasing trend in initial claims continues; on track to signal recession in November  – by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims declined 5,000 to 256,000 last week. But hold your celebrations, because that was because last week’s 251,000 was revised 10,000 higher! The 4 week average rose another 6,250 to 249,250, a nearly 8 month high.  On the positive side, continuing claims declined 25,000 to 1,359,000: Typically, but not always,...

First comments on Q2 GDP: no, we’re not in a recession (yet)  – by New Deal democrat When the negative print on Q1 GDP first came out three months ago, I wrote: “yes, it was a negative GDP print. No, it doesn’t necessarily mean recession…. But the big culprits were non-core items. Personal consumption expenditures, even adjusted for inflation, were positive. The three big negatives were a big decline in exports vs. imports, followed in about...

“What’s in it for me?” they asked. They being the transactional species. “Truth be, nothing,” was the answer. Truth be, there was nothing they nor anyone else could do in their lifetimes that would make it better for them, their kids, or their grandkids. Too late. So, they kept on doing the things that would kill the very thing that had given them everything. There was a time when they believed that this that had given them life and everything...

Jim Hannan brought this issue up in AB comments section. Been too busy trying to get myself healthy again. Just unbelievable. Republicans want to cut out mandatory spending for veterans. This would be another time where politicians have used “veterans in need” to pursue their own political agenda. Vietnam vets saw similar issues. The Bush Administration was also shortchanging Iraq Veterans. And now veterans facing extreme health issues are being...

A 73-year-old woman died of COVID because she got caught up in conspiracy theories and medical misinformation.  NPR has the details: When Stephanie caught COVID-19 just before Thanksgiving of last year, her daughter Laurie suggested that she get help.“She was really not feeling well, and I was like, ‘Just go to the doctor,'” Laurie recalls.But Stephanie, who was 75 at the time, didn’t go. A few years before, she had been sucked into a world of...

Mitch McConnell Expels Joe Manchin from Republican Party “Mitch McConnell Expels Joe Manchin from Republican Party“ Andy Borowitz, New Yorker, July 28, 2022 WASHINGTON (The Borowitz Report) – Accusing the West Virginia senator of “collaborating with the enemy,” Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell angrily announced Joe Manchin’s expulsion from the Republican Party. “Joe Manchin’s behavior during the past twenty-four hours has...

by Joseph Joyce The Increasing Debtor Status of the U.S. The Net International Investment Position (NIIP) of a country reflects the difference between foreign assets owned by domestic residents and domestic liabilities held by foreign residents. The difference, positive or negative, determines a country’s status as an international creditor or debtor. The U.S. position, which has been negative for many years, has deteriorated sharply in recent...