The Angry Bear

Industrial production now exceeds pre-pandemic level Industrial production, the King of Coincident Indicators, was reported this morning for August and was positive in a particularly significant way. Total production increased 0.4% in August, and the manufacturing component increased 0.1%. Nothing particularly special about that; in fact the manufacturing component was a little weak compared with most recent months. Additionally, the July...

“US crude supplies at a 23 month low, gasoline supplies at a 22 month low,” Focus on Fracking, Blogger and Commenter RJS The Latest US Oil Supply and Disposition Data from the EIA US oil data from the US Energy Information Administration for the week ending September 3rd indicated that after major decreases in our oilfield production, our refinery throughput, our oil imports and our oil exports due to Hurricane Ida, we needed to withdraw oil...

A more “normal” consumer inflation reading for August belies damage to the economy going forward Inflation, along with the expiration of the emergency pandemic payment, is one of the two big threats to this expansion. This morning August consumer inflation was the lowest in 6 months, up only 0.3% – within the range of a normal reading in normal times. Since wages increased 0.5% in August, this means that real wages increased. Let’s take a...

Time was when the future could be and was read from the tea leaves of the past. Elders, old timers, and other records could tell us what to expect in the way of weather. That wasn’t so long ago. Today, all we have to go on is the scientific models. The past no longer applies when it comes to weather. Without the benefit of science, we’re flying VFR at night. Oh, the Meteorologists can still tell us what to expect in the next few days, but they...

Coronavirus dashboard for September 13: on the downside of the Delta wave, vaccinations make all the difference With each passing day, it becomes increasingly likely that the peak of the Delta wave was just before Labor Day. We’ll probably get a pop in the weekly average number tomorrow, as today’s numbers replace the Labor Day holiday numbers, but unless there is a big surprise, it appears we are into the downside of the wave. But we are still...

In my previous post, I argued that the only plausible way to criticize covid policy is to explain why some alternative policy mix (possibly a policy with a big dose of “no regulation”) will lead to better outcomes than the current policy regime.  Libertarians often refuse to engage in this type of policy analysis.  Instead, they often claim that government efforts to fight covid are illegitimate because they are authoritarian, or violate rights, or...

Death to Farm Credit from Those on High, Farmer and Economist, Mike Smith I’m in between fall crop planting and have to focus so I am going to run this like the rancher on the clock. Farm Credit System History  In 1916 when the Farm Credit System was established there were 6 million farms that employed around 30% of the US population. They each averaged 140 acres or so of land, had minimal automation investment, were manually laborious, and...

For some, the past is not past. The past is something to hold on to; is something to be always brought forward. They don’t want, don’t like, change. The rest of us, we know that we must change in order to progress, to survive. In order for those who would remain in the past to have their way, they must be in charge. Thus it is that, presently, around the world, we have the forces for the past attempting, by one means or another, to either retain,...

July’s Wholesale Sales Were Up 2.0%; Wholesale Inventories Were Up 0.6%, MarketWatch 666, RJS Monthly Wholesale Trade Report for July 2021 (census.gov)The July report on Wholesale Trade, Sales and Inventories (pdf) from the Census Bureau estimated that the seasonally adjusted value of wholesale sales was at $601.3 billion in July, up 2.0 percent (±0.4 percent) from the revised June level, and up 23.7 percent (±1.6 percent) from wholesale sales of...