The Angry Bear

Lessons for the present from the Postwar Boom One of the things I harp on from time to time is that from 1932 to 1956 there was never a yield curve inversion, and yet recessions certainly did happen! Too many modern models get hung up on Fed intervention. But what happens when the Fed doesn’t intervene, as was the case for that 25 year period? Or is perhaps the case now, with the Fed funds rate at record levels below the inflation rate?...

Channeling Great Grandfather Mayer May Mayer May was born in Bavaria in 1848 and immigrated to the United States in 1869 when he was 21 years old. Bavaria had universal military conscription at age 21. I was born in 1948 and immigrated to Canada in 1967 to resist the draft. Over the years, I have experienced intense fascination regarding certain topics. For example, in the early eighties, I was intrigued by the story of Moses at Mount Sinai and...

Follow up to; “Section 2 of the 14th Amendment” – Angry Bear (angrybearblog.com) No Republican fears Democrats or the use of Section 2 of the 14th Amendment either. Gaetz is still prancing around, McCarthy lies to the public, Eastman writes a memo to VP Pence to nullify state electoral votes, Cawthorn again caught with a pistol at TSA checkpoint, Cruz and Hawley makes stuff up as usual, etc. And marjorie green suffered a loss of memory in...

Just how dry have the ground conditions been? Dire. Fire sweeping towns from Austin to Los Angeles, dire. Rain? Forecast yes, but closer to the Powell Line. The Powell Line, as stated previously is where the dry plains and the wet prairie meet. An abundance and a desert. Too much and not enough. Floods and fire. We finally got rain today. Much needed as we have pumped 20,000 gallons and then some per month out of the aquifer supplying Dallas,...

RJS; MarketWatch 666 Summary: March industrial production: G17 release on Industrial production and Capacity Utilization for March indicates industrial production rose 0.9% in March after rising by a revised 0,9% in February and a revised 1.0% in January, which left production 5.5% higher than a year ago. Industrial Production Rose 0.9% to Highest on Record in March The Fed’s G17 release on Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for...

This is mostly a C&P with editing involved. Taken from Altarum Health Sector Economic Indicators, and “Insights from Monthly National Health Spending Data through December 2021.” I have added the link Altarum to return to the original article. Without the additional government spending covering Covid costs and a recession during 2020 -2021, overall healthcare spending would have been higher. The nation is also having one Covid issue which...

Yesterday Emmanuel Macron was re-elected president of France solidly defeating Marine LePen by about 16%. This is a relief. I think a striking aspect of the election was the absence of Gaullist or Socialist candidate in the runoff. Instead there is a centrist vs a far rightist. This pattern is not confined to France and also not universal. One important point is that LePen made the runoff by defeating leftist Jean-Luc Melenchon by 1.5% in the...

by New Deal democrat Weekly Indicators for April 18 – 22 at Seeking Alpha My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. While I was writing about mortgage rates during the week, the yield curve did some re-tightening, enough to make a difference in the long term forecast. As usual, clicking over and reading should help bring you up to the virtual minute as to the nowcast and forecast for the economy, and help me pay for some nice...

RJS, Focus on Fracking Summary: Strategic Petroleum Reserve at a 20 year low, US oil supplies at a 14 year low after record jump in exports; distillates supplies at a 14 year low, total oil + products inventories at an 8 year low; a total oil + products exports at a record high The Latest US Oil Supply and Disposition Data from the EIA US oil data from the US Energy Information Administration for the week ending April 15th indicated that...