The Angry Bear

Major Economic Confusion  Anybody confused by recent economic reports is not alone. The BEA has just reported a totally unexpected decline in real GDP for the first quarter of a 1.4% annual rate.  At the same time layoffs have reached a half century low and employment continues to rise.  How can we have an apparently beginning recession with the hottest job market in decades? Probably this has to do with the sources of the reported decline,...

RJS, MarketWatch 666 1st Quarter GDP Shrunk at a 1.4% Rate on a Record Trade Deficit and Slower Growth of Inventories Our economy shrunk at a 1.4% rate in the 1st quarter, the first GDP reversal since the first quarter of 2020, as increased personal consumption of services and greater fixed investment were more than offset by weaker investment in inventories and a record trade deficit, which subtracted over 3 percent from GDP . . ....

Lackluster spending, a decline in real income and savings in March; when the house price spiral turns, consumers are in real trouble In March nominal personal income rose 0.5%, and spending rose 1.1%. But since the personal consumption deflator, i.e., the relevant measure of inflation, rose 0.9%, real income declined -0.4%, and real personal spending rose only +0.2%. While both real income and spending are well above their pre-pandemic...

Introduction to Bankruptcy Discharge for Student Loans I know the image on the right, my other right is small. To enlarge it, click on the picture. A plus sign may show up to make it even larger. I have been following the student loan crisis (and it is such) well over a decade. I have engaged certain politicians on the issue in public. I have worked with Alan Collinge at Student Loan Justice Org for well over a decade. He is in...

RJS, Focus on Fracking Summary: Strategic Petroleum Reserve at a 20 year low, US oil supplies at a 14 year low; distillates supplies at a 14 year low, total oil + product inventories at an 13½ year low The Latest US Oil Supply and Disposition Data from the EIA US oil data from the US Energy Information Administration for the week ending April 22nd indicated that because of a drop in our oil exports and a big increase in oil that could not be...

Q1 GDP negative; but more importantly, two of three long leading indicators have deteriorated First things first: yes, it was a negative GDP print. No, it doesn’t necessarily mean recession. I’ve been expecting weakness to show up by now ever since last summer; so here it is.But the big culprits were non-core items. Personal consumption expenditures, even adjusted for inflation, were positive. The three big negatives were a big decline in...

What happens when the USPS decides to close a Post Office? The closure does not happen over night. A Post Office may close immediately due to an emergency, a suspended lease, less business over time, etc. In any case the USPS follows up. This post by Steve Hutkins is a review of the process and where the USPS is with regard is suspended Post Offices. ________ Lost in Limbo: Post Offices Under Suspension – Save the Post Office, Steve Hutkins...

Copy and Paste for now until I can get into the Health Affairs article. Hospitalization averages a third of all healthcare costs. The pricing (Pricing equals costs in this instance) varies by region which kind of tells me there “may” be variation due to the strength of ACOs in regions. Trends in Hospital Prices Varied Widely Across the United States | RAND The average prices charged to commercial health plans by hospitals, as compared to what...

Jobless claims: yet another 50+ year low in continuing claims [Programming note: I’ll comment on the Q1 GDP report later]. Initial jobless claims declined -5,000 to 180,000, but above the recent 50+ year low of 166,000 set in March. The 4 week average rose 2,250 to 179,250, compared with the all-time low of 170,500 set three weeks ago. Continuing claims declined -1,000 to 1,407,000, yet another new 50 year low (but still well above their...