The Angry Bear

Coronavirus dashboard for April 27: Estimating the BA.2.12.1 wave The CDC updated its variant proportions data yesterday. BA.2.12.1 cases grew from 19% to 29% of all US cases:  and from 45% to 60% in NY and NJ. At the other end of the spectrum, BA.2.12.1 was only 9% of cases in the Pacific Northwest and 8% in the South Central region. BA.1 is down to only 2% of cases: Focusing on NY and NJ, NJ has had a little spurt in the...

Progressives have been pressuring President Biden to forgive student debt using existing administrative authority.  Calls have gotten louder as Democrats become more concerned about their weak position going into the November mid-terms.  Supporters of debt relief point to polls showing support for relief, especially among younger voters that the Democrats need to mobilize.  There are a lot of problems with this analysis. Debt relief does seem...

I was reading the commentary on student loan forgiveness since Joe Biden has said he would do something. It is not going to be $50,000 in forgiveness as Senators Warren, Sanders, and Schumer are pushing. Biden has said it is unlikely it will be this amount. Indeed, he suggested $10,000. The $10,000 might be worthy if we canceled all of the penalties, consolidation fees, and the excess interest along with the $10,000. If you are not aware, Joe...

I just ran across the website of the Property and Freedom Society, a fringe libertarian group I had not heard of before.  (I’m mostly interested in work by people with at least a patina of intellectual credibility.)  Apparently PFS is associated with the Mises/Rothbard wing of the libertarian movement, a group that today stands out for its openness to racist appeals to gain power (link is to an infamous Rothbard paper endorsing “right wing...

Prices soar, sales drop; oh by the way, sales lead prices New home sales declined -8.6% in March, which isn’t as sharp as it seems since declines of this magnitude happen 2-3x/year. The series is also heavily revised, so no new month’s number should be given too much weight. On the other hand, new home sales are frequently the first series to decline after a peak, so the fact that they have not made a new high since January of last year, and...

Was thinking about this one and Dale Coberly asked if I would write on this. For “Arne,” this post is about Supplemental Security Income. ? How can that be? “The Supreme Court’s Callous Blow to Puerto Ricans” | Washington Monthly The majority opinion relies on precedent, Puerto Rico is part of the U.S., Congress. Congress does not have to treat it as a real part of the nation. Puerto Rico citizens do not pay federal income tax. Apparently,...

In Ukraine, Use the Weapon the Russians Can’t Match It’s nowhere near as expensive as it sounds, and much more humane: offer every Russian soldier who defects $100,000 and the right to settle in any EU/North American country of their choice.  It might not work, especially if Russia uses deadly force against soldiers who lay down their arms or violent reprisals against their families back home.  But if a large enough portion of their troops accept...

Lessons for the present from the Postwar Boom One of the things I harp on from time to time is that from 1932 to 1956 there was never a yield curve inversion, and yet recessions certainly did happen! Too many modern models get hung up on Fed intervention. But what happens when the Fed doesn’t intervene, as was the case for that 25 year period? Or is perhaps the case now, with the Fed funds rate at record levels below the inflation rate?...

Channeling Great Grandfather Mayer May Mayer May was born in Bavaria in 1848 and immigrated to the United States in 1869 when he was 21 years old. Bavaria had universal military conscription at age 21. I was born in 1948 and immigrated to Canada in 1967 to resist the draft. Over the years, I have experienced intense fascination regarding certain topics. For example, in the early eighties, I was intrigued by the story of Moses at Mount Sinai and...