The Angry Bear

Housing starts show continued strength in March, while single family permits indicate softness ahead The continued strength in total housing permits and starts shown in this morning’s report for March was surprising; but the series with the most signal and least noise, single family permits, betrayed weakness. While typically permits, especially single family permits, lead the series, in the past year, however, there has been a unique divergence...

by Joseph Joyce The IMF’s Proposed Policies on the Management of Capital Flows The IMF’s views on the advantages and drawbacks of capital flows have substantially evolved over time. The Fund reversed its opposition to capital controls in the wake of the global financial crisis of 2007-09, when it adopted the “Institutional View on the Liberalization and Management of Capital Flows.” That framework included capital flows measures (CFMs) as...

On Morning Joe today, they interviewed Senator Mallory McMorrow. She mentioned toward the end (around 8:02 minutes in) that in 2014 the Republican party had less than 50% of the vote. However, they had 72% of the seats. Unfortunately, it was toward the end and no one’s ears perked up upon hearing this. She notes it will not get any better unless they are voted out of office. At Crooks and Liars today is a post of James Carville suggesting that...

Commenter and Blogger Dale Coberly I have been reading William Manchester’s biography of Winston Churchill. I do not know how reliable Manchester is, but I think I have learned more about a couple of things I thought I knew about, which might be worth thinking about with regard to events in Ukraine. Churchill was a very gifted man who made mistakes, but he got Hitler right when no one else did, and so earned his place in History. In the past I...

The worst interest rate upturn since 1994 is likely to produce the worst housing downturn in over a decade No economic news of note today; but tomorrow we will see housing permits and starts for March, and on Wednesday existing home sales. So let’s take an important look at housing. The recent increase in mortgage rates to over 5% is the most serious interest rate threat to housing in at least the past 30 years. As the below graph shows, the...

Paul Krugman on the Great Illusion of economic rationality and war — in 2008 Paul Krugman wrote an article this past week about how free trade can enable authoritarians, and how Russia’s invasion of Ukraine may be putting an end to globalization. I went looking for an excerpt that wasn’t behind a paywall, and look what I found instead: the below article from Krugman in 2008, helpfully copied in the old Economist’s View blog. In retrospect, it...

The worst interest rate upturn since 1994 is likely to produce the worst housing downturn in over a decade No economic news of note today; but tomorrow we will see housing permits and starts for March, and on Wednesday existing home sales. So let’s take an important look at housing. The recent increase in mortgage rates to over 5% is the most serious interest rate threat to housing in at least the past 30 years. As the below graph shows, the...

RJS Summary; Global oil surplus at 710,000 barrels per day in March despite OPEC’s 821,000 barrel per day production shortfall OPEC’s Report on Global Oil for March Tuesday of the past week saw the release of OPEC’s April Oil Market Report, which includes details on OPEC & global oil data for March, and hence it gives us a picture of the global oil supply & demand situation after OPEC and aligned oil producers agreed to increase their...

We May Be on The Precipe of a Dust Bowl La Niña is showing her brutality as places that need to plant soon are snowed in and the places that have planted are dry, dry, dry, with the exception of the Mississippi floodplain. Here in central Texas, we are hit and miss with the official precip totals a little less than average, but we are not even at seven inches of measurable precipitation so far this year on my farm, which is less than an hour west...