The Angry Bear

Conventional Macroeconomics Rears Its Head  It is always annoying to have to admit one has been wrong.  But I was among those who a year ago or so was going along with those who argued inflation was transitory and the rate would probably come down later in the year.  The annoying Larry Summers, along with the somewhat less annoying Olivier Blanchard, prominently argued the contrary, hauling out old-fashioned conventional macroeconomic arguments...

Maybe I am missing something along the way here. Or is there just so many times when you go and kick the football and Lucy or in this case Joe Manchin decides to move the football again. Joe Manchin ain’t no cartoon character and I am not Charlie Brown. Somebody has to be getting a bit angry by now. We are trying to appease a chameleon, a child, or just a plain liar. Manchin; “I’ve heard people say that before the July 4 break, you should have...

Or was it? How many philosophical ‘baby Hitlers’ does it take? That’s a tough one, because how could you know? By 1937, it was a no brainer. By 2002, it was a no brainer. By 2008, less than zero. Now, there is no doubt it has been discussed at the highest levels, here, in Europe, and between. Especially since February this year. Is war a sport with rules as to what is fair and what is not? Then, one man caused the deaths of 75-80 million human...

Or was it? How many philosophical ‘baby Hitlers’ does it take? That’s a tough one, because how could you know? By 1937, it was a no brainer. By 2002, it was a no brainer. By 2008, less than zero. Now, there is no doubt it has been discussed at the highest levels, here, in Europe, and between. Especially since February this year. Is war a sport with rules as to what is fair and what is not? Then, one man caused the deaths of 75-80 million human...

RJS, MarketWatch 666 “February” Durable Goods: New Orders Down 2.2%, Shipments Flat, Inventories Up 0.4% The “Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories and Orders for February” (pdf) from the Census Bureau reported that the value of the widely watched new orders for manufactured durable goods decreased by $6.0 billion or 2.2 percent to $271.5 billion in February, the first decrease in five months, after January’s...

As I noted previously, Congress has somehow failed to provide funding for COVID vaccines and treatments.  This is a major policy error, an error that could kill many tens of thousands of people if not corrected. You might think that spending on vaccines and treatments would be something we could all agree on, regardless of our other differences on COVID policy.  After all, even libertarians who oppose mask and vaccine mandates and social...

Between the Russian invasion of Ukraine and COVID outbreaks in China, it certainly seems likely that supply shortfalls and upward pressure on prices will continue.  This raises difficult questions about politics and economic policy. On the political side of the ledger, I think that President Biden’s strategy should be predicated on continued inflation; if inflation subsides people will be happy and he will benefit politically no matter what he...

 by New Deal democrat Weekly Indicators for March 21 – 25 at Seeking Alpha My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. The walls closed in a little more on the long leading forecast this week, as now real money supply is beginning to falter. As usual, clicking over and reading will bring you thoroughly up to date, and will reward me a little bit for giving you a heads up as to what awaits, economically, in the future....

Coronavirus dashboard for March 28: I’ll take the “under” for the severity of any BA.2 wave Very few US States reported over the weekend. The decline in new cases has stalled at roughly 30,000 per day. Deaths are still declining, and are currently just below 800 per day. Since the BA.2 variant continues to generate new headlines, with just about everybody warning of a new wave in the US, let’s take a look at what actually happened in Europe...