The Angry Bear

Q3 GDP will show economic contraction? 150+ years of short term interest rate history says no No economic news today, but let me show you one important reason I am not concerned about the supply chain or inflation issues at this point, despite some DOOOMMsaying about a likely punk GDP reading for Q3 that will be reported on Thursday. There is no one foolproof indicator that always has indicated recession in advance. For example, as I have...

My Big Picture It’s a Sunday (Dan here…I put this up late), and it’s been a while since I put up some generalized thoughts on where we are, so let’s update. I’ll go in order of my optimism on the economy, COVID, and the political situation. The economy I am pretty happy about the place the economy is in right now, and for the near term future. Yes, we have inflation and supply chain issues, but we always have issues. And Q3 GDP will...

Oil prices at 7 year high after longest string of weekly gains on record, Focus on Fracking, Commenter and Blogger RJS Oil prices rose for a record 9th consecutive week to a fresh 7 year high following across the board withdrawals from US oil & product inventories . . . after rising 3.7% to a 7 year high of $82.28 a barrel last week as global shortages of coal and natural gas were expected to lead to increased demand for oil, the contract...

“Regenerative Agriculture Certification,” Michael Smith, Farmer and Economist Dear Regenerative Certification team, It is a pleasure to submit and share what Foxglove Grove has been working toward since our initial business plan and due diligence exploration phase going back to 2015. As of 2020 we have taken 2018 proof of concept, turned it into an uncertified organic farm and 501c3 educational establishment. We are in Central Texas among acres...

The plight of independent truckers There were quite a few TV shows out there which gave trucking a romantic style of life to live. It was a lot of hard work and not quite like what was portrayed in shows like “Cannonball” or “Movin On.” Just crossing Nebraska would put you to sleep and Cannonball did not have a truck sleeper. There is a lot of danger involved with being on the roads with trucks other than having them stop and change a tire...

Does economic growth cause unemployment?, Econospeak, Sandwichman, October 24 Usually, a question in the title of an article is a teaser and the answer is almost always “no.” Not in this case. The standard argument is that economic growth is necessary to create jobs and that unemployment results from the slowing or interruption of growth. Even advocates of degrowth or a steady-state economy assume a positive connection between growth and...

Wealth is leisure. Leisure, wealth. The three quotes above are from, respectively: 1. William Godwin 2. Charles Wentworth Dilke 3. Karl Marx. There was a very pronounced influence of Godwin on Dilke and of Dilke on Marx (hence indirectly of Godwin on Marx). My research suggests that viewing Marx’s work from the perspective of Dilke’s major influence reveals both hidden strengths and weaknesses in Marx’s critique of political economy.  The...

No Covid-19d-19 Here Or in North Korea: Turkmenistan Yes, Turkmenistan is among the few nations on the planet claiming to have not had a single case of Covid-19, along with the DPRK, aka “North Korea.”  The October 16 Economist reports, after noting the arrest of Nurgeldi Halykov, who reported that the British ambassador got it, who was, of course, arrested: “Social-media networks and news websites are blocked. Police surveil mobile phones that...

This commentary by Professor Heather caught my eye this morning. Interesting findings in the Letter today.. Letters From An American, October 23, 2021, Professor Heather Cox – Richardson There are three stories in the news today that seem to me to add up to a larger picture. First is the story of money laundering, which seems suddenly to be all over the news. Today we learned that federal prosecutors in Detroit have broken into a massive...