The Angry Bear

First data releases of 2022 confirm manufacturing strength, construction slowdown The first December data, the forward-looking ISM manufacturing report, has been released. Yesterday construction spending for November was also released. Let’s take a look at both. The ISM index, especially its new orders subindex, is an important short leading indicator for the production sector. In December the index declined from 61.1 to 58.7, as did the...

Oil prices rose 55% in 2021, the most since 2009, while natural gas prices rose 47%, the most since 2016, Focus on Fracking, RJS Oil prices rose for a second week after the initial Omicron selloff, as oil traders and most everyone else have become convinced that Omicron poses little risk to oil demand . . . after rising 4.3% to $73.79 a barrel last week on trouble in Libya, a big drawdown on US crude supplies, and on a refinery explosion in...

Opinion Piece this morning comes from retired U.S. Army General Steven Anderson, CBS News I do not necessarily put-up military commentary. This brigadier general appears to have his “stuff” together on the topic. It is a good read. Forty-three years ago, I swore an oath to protect the Constitution against all enemies, foreign and domestic. Back then, who could have imagined the domestic attack on our democracy a year ago this week? In the...

Grading my 2021 forecasts Critical self-examination is, or at least ought to be, part of the process of making forecasts. After all, how can you learn if you don’t see how earlier hypotheses panned out? As I have usually done, let’s take a look back at how I forecast 2021 was going to look, to see how well I did. To make a long story short, according to the long and short leading indicators I track, there was never any real doubt that the...

RJS, MarketWatch 666, October’s Case–Shiller HPI; Advance Economic Indicators for November With the major month end reports already released last week, the only widely watched report released this week was the Case-Shiller Home Price Index for October from S&P Case-Shiller, which doesn’t even report any prices of homes, but just a index generated by averaging relative sales prices of homes that sold during August, September and October against...

Prof. Joel Eissenberg, Upfront Blog For Christmas 2021, Linda gave me a copy of “The St. Louis Commune of 1877: Communism in the Heartland” by Mark Kruger. The title certainly grabbed my attention. Having read it, there’s somewhat less than meets the eye here. The reason I never heard of this before is that the “commune” was very brief and poorly organized, and the history has been mostly ignored, since the historical impact on St. Louis...

by New Deal democrat Weekly Indicators for December 27 – 31 at Seeking Alpha The last edition of Weekly Indicators for 2021 is up at Seeking Alpha. I have been watching restaurant reservations for the first signs of the economic impact of Omicron. Well . . . . Additionally, interest rates are hitting an important milestone this week, that is changing some of their ratings, and with that the reading of the long leading forecast. As...

Georgia beat up Michigan Football and Coach Jim Harbaugh badly this last weekend. It was not even close. Michiganders take their football seriously, more seriously than contracting Covid. Hospitalization for Covid increased dramatically in Michigan. According to the CDC, it is the delta strain impacting the unvaccinated Michiganders. The Republican dominated Senate and House shut down the Governor and Michigan Health Director’s ability to restrict...

Agricultural Economist and Farmer Michael Smith Sherman Act v. Modern Conglomerate Agriculture Multiple times the Biden Administration, along with Secretary Vilsack, and other administrations have made multiple public comments and now threats of investigation of beef producers and their horizontal and vertical integration over the past few decades. The targeting of the beef industry is one of the loudest and most recent, but we fail to realize...