The Angry Bear

IN 2020 the US homicide rate increased by 29% the largest percent increase on record. There are different theories of the cause. Some are related to Covid 19 with isolation (not lockdowns there were not lockdowns in the USA) causing increased stress and domestic disputes. The George Floyd associated conflict between police and those they are sworn to protect and serve could have led police to quietly quit (there is evidence of this in the reduced...

This is not 2016 and Trump got one hell of a shellacking from Harris in the debate. She was smiling . . . This forecast by Nate Silver seems to me to be a bit optimistic. about Trump in the lead with 60-something percent. After Trump’s debate performance with Kamala Harris, I do not see Trump winning. If he does, it will be slight. I still would not ignore Trump. We did one time before, thinking our vote would be funny. Against Hillary...

Labor market remains strong. Even so, the Fed should cut rates in September (EPI) Two things are true right now for the U.S. economy:  The labor market is extraordinarily strong when judged by any historical benchmark.  The Federal Reserve is behind the curve in cutting interest rates and should start cutting rates at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting next week. To aim for something like a federal funds rate that is at least two...

 – by New Deal democrat I’m a little late to this, since FRED took its time updating, but the annual report of median household income for the US was released on Tuesday for 2023.  This is an important statistic about the well-being of, well, the median American household, so one of my pet peeves is that it is only released annually, and with a 9-month delay at that. So, Tuesday’s release tells us about where an important metric was about 18...

This is a good update as done by Prof. Heather Cox-Richardson at Letters from an American. As Prof. Heather writes, Trump is denying the reality of his failure(s) during the debate, He took the bait VP Kamala Harris laid out during the debate hook, sinker, line, and the pole. It was brutal to watch. And funny as Trump got a well-deserved comeuppance. As I said Trump is in denial that he lost. Any offer for another debate with Harris is being...

Coverage denials as reported by the Commonwealth Fund today almost never happened in the past and was a rare occurrence. The insurance companies would concede to the findings of the examining doctors. The methodology being used today is to deny, deny, deny until the insured and the doctor give up. I think it was 1997 when a fictional story “The Rainmaker” became a movie, The issue was a bone marrow transplant which was denied by the healthcare...

Will mail slowdown affect your area? USPS won’t say, Save the Post Office Richmond Times-Dispatch: The USPS is proposing a new plan in order to keep itself afloat, and the plan involves slower mail in rural ZIP codes across the country. But the agency will not say which post offices will be affected. Postmaster General Louis DeJoy on Aug. 22 proposed what are being called “operational changes.” Since then, the Richmond Times-Dispatch has sought...

I have thoughts on a typically interesting essay by Brad DeLong. It was sent to project syndicate and also my e-mail inbox. I think I should not quote it at length without paying. His claim is that, whether or not one likes industrial policy, we need it now. Given the 700-word limit, he doesn’t discuss Biden’s industrial policy and how it seems to be working. I will try to define industrial policy not as anything by laissez faire but specifically...

– by New Deal democrat If residual post-pandemic seasonality has been affecting jobless claims statistics, the real acid test is going to begin next week, as for the next 7+ months, any number higher than 220,000 is almost always going to be higher than one year ago. In the meantime, for this our last week of the seasonal downtrend, initial jobless claims rose 2,000 to 230,000. The four week moving average rose 750 to 230,750. Continuing...

Apparently, the larger WalMarts, Target, etc. know how to do so. The lower cost rivals(?) which should have greater appeal to its targeted customers are struggling. ~~~~~~~ Dollar General and Dollar Tree need a ‘new playbook‘ to compete . . . In the world of retail, Walmart, Target, and Costco continue to thrive with their blend of quality and convenience. Low-cost rivals Dollar Tree and Dollar General face declining consumer...