The Angry Bear

Initial claims weaker, but still not at cautionary levels I’ve been monitoring initial jobless claims closely for the past several months, to see if there are any signs of a slowdown turning into something worse. Simply put, no recession is going to begin unless and until layoffs increase, and the lack of any such increase has been the best argument that no recession is imminent. My two thresholds for initial claims are: 1. If the four week average on...

A yellow flag from temporary hiring In the conclusion of my latest Weekly Indicators post, I wrote that, except for temporary staffing, I didn’t see any signs of weakness spreading out beyond manufacturing and import/export. Manufacturing, as measured by industrial production, has been in a shallow recession all year. By contrast, the consumer – 70% of the economy – continues to do ok, boosted by lower interest rates for mortgages and somnolent gas...

The End Of Decades Having Identities In The USA? We are closing on the centennial of the beginning of decades having identities in the USA, the “Roaring 20s” of the 20th century.  It may be that this centennial will clearly mark the end of this odd phenomenon that we had been used to, but which was always a bit odd.  Why did this start and why might ibe ending?  I have a few thoughts on this. My theory oon why it started in the 1920s is that this was...

I covered the House SECURE Act and the Senate RESA version last July. The House RESA Act is up for consideration in the Senate now. It does not look like it is going to make it due to the impeachment process going on and a potential trial in the Senate. There is also a small matter of a budget needing to be passed. It was to be considered under an unanimous consent vote; however, three Republican Senators (Mike Lee of Utah [unidentified reason], Ted Cruz...

Introduction: I am still on the mailing lists of quite a few resin and plastics companies. This particular presentation is from Sesotec GmbH (“company with limited liability”). Sesotec was an exhibitor at the K trade fair in Düsseldorf and now is reflecting on an exciting and positive trade fair appearance (for them) with its topic of a “Circular Plastics Economy.” This is part 1 of a 4 part presentation which I believe to be done in an exemplary manner...

by Eric Kramer Liberal economists are open to persuasion.  What about conservatives? There are many examples within the economics profession of cases where liberals have been persuaded by conservative arguments that raise doubts about the value of government intervention in markets. Harold Demsetz argued that it is a mistake to call for government intervention simply because markets depart from perfect efficiency, because not all inefficiencies can be...

Reuters: Italy will become the first nation to require all schoolchildren to study climate change and sustainable development. Education Minister Lorenzo Fioramonti of the anti-establishment 5-Star Movement: “The entire ministry is being changed to make sustainability and climate the center of the education model. All state schools would dedicate 33 hours per year or almost one hour per school week to climate change issues from the start of the next...

by David Zetland (originally published at One handed economist) Big data helps monopolies, not you Economists say competition in markets rages from “perfect” (no company can charge a price over cost without losing 100% of its customers to another company) to “monopoly” (one company sets prices to maximize profits). Two caveats are important. First, the monopolist doesn’t charge as much as possible but whatever maximizes profits. There might be a lot of...