The Angry Bear

I am sure by now many of you have read what the gov is and is not doing for us. The later is more prevalent as can be witnessed in the stimuli being offered. I am going to ask you to pay attention to the last item on ACA Healthcare Insurance. Whether you qualified or not in the past, you may be eligible for assistance now. I have broken this out into 4-points of which many of us might find ourselves. If you questions, PLEASE ASK, I will try to answer. The...

I am still trying to wrap my head around the coronavirus disaster.  Here is some current thinking . . . The immediate cause of the economic slowdown is a collapse in both demand and supply due to social isolation.  This will have at least two knock-on effects.  First, the initial collapse in economic activity will be magnified by a traditional demand multiplier effect.  Second, the collapse in economic activity will lead to widespread formal and informal...

Some Ideas for Pandeminomics The starting point for all of what follows is that government, if it has the will to act, is currently in the driver’s seat.  Much of the private sector is facing a terrifying confluence of crunches: supply breakdowns, demand falling off a cliff for many goods and services, and a looming shortfall of liquidity to service debt.  A wide swath of business is on the ropes and needs a rescue from government.  This puts the power...

The Coronavirus Recession has begun This morning we got two reports that confirm the beginning of the Coronavirus Recession: initial jobless claims and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index. Initial claims rose to 281,000 one week ago. They are now 15% higher than their low last April, as well as almost 15% higher preliminarily on a monthly basis than last March, and the 4 week moving average is just shy of 5% higher than one year ago.  This meets two...

It is a start, maybe. Remdesivir is being touted as a potentially more effective drug. The Chinese had reported there were several pharmaceuticals which appeared to work also and in particular drugs for malaria, Chloroquine and HydoxyChloroquine. I had mentioned this earlier in the week in a post and then again in two separate comments. One small clinical test (preliminary trial with 24 -36 patients) in France had positive results recently as reported...

[embedded content]The closing remarks of Moscow Mitch McConnell statement before the vote to spare Donald John Trump his presidency. He was talking about “factional fever” that the “framers” referred to as a concern for majorities acting in a partisan manor.  And yet, here we are.

Given the Coronavirus crisis, there will be bailouts. Should there be bailouts ? If so how should firms be bailed out ? I think it is useful to look at the last round of bailouts from 2008-9 for lessons learned. First with the benefit of hindsight, does it seem that bailing out firms was a mistake ? On the one hand one can argue that it was necessary to prevent the Great Depression. It is hard to discuss whether it was worth the cost, because there...

We do not know how severe the covid-19 epidemic will be or how much economic and social pain it will cause, but it clearly has the potential to kill hundreds of thousands or even millions of Americans, and the economic consequences could include a deep recession and even a financial crisis that will cause misery to tens of millions of people. Testing is key to getting the epidemic under control, and it is not clear to me that policymakers are being nearly...

The Coming Fiscal Crisis Of State And Local Governments Yesterday my wife Marina and I met with our personal attorney, a close friend also, to fix  some loose ends in our wills due to some recent family deaths, as well the current situation.  He also happens to sit on the Harrisonburg City Council, as well as having been Mayor for a  while and a longtime member of the city Planning Commission, someone whose competence we have great respect for.  Anyway,...