The Angry Bear

 – by New Deal democrat The monthly personal income and spending report is now the most important report of all, except for jobs. That’s becuase it tells us so much about the state of the consumer economy. It is the raw material for several important coincident indicators that the NBER looks at, as well as several leading indicators on the spending side. To the numbers: in July nominal personal income rose 0.3%, and spending rose 0.5%. Since...

Wood is a form of natural carbon sequestration. Yesterday, I posted about how wood is making a comeback as a building material. I’ve since found this article announcing that the world’s largest building built (partly) of wood has been greenlit.“Western Australia is set to become home to the world’s tallest timber building, a “revolutionary” 50-storey hybrid design reaching a height of 191.2 metres.Timber will make up 42% of South Perth’s C6 building,...

Medicare Advantage Plans are funded by Traditional Medicare which is slowly being depleted. Much of what MA does which proves to be so costly is due to MA up coding of its patients. It is estimated this will cost an ~$88 billion in 2024. This is up from $80 billion in 2023. Studies have found evidence of upcoding and favorable selection of patients are driving significant overpayments to MA plans. MedPAC also said the program’s quality bonus...

I asked our builder if the water piping was insulated. Nope. Insulation would save on hot water usage and also colder water usage. You can not get cold water in the Summer. And you run the water to get hot water due to no insulation. In AZ, they use PEX tubing for water. PEX is cheaper and just about anyone can install it. Copper takes more skill, is more durable. and can be insulated which saves on costs. “We voted to create tough water...

This is a second hand story about my brother in law’s experience in a Giant (TM) Supermarket checkout line (I guess he should guest post this). He saw someone checking out wearing a Trump Shirt and started a conversation (he’s like that) mentioning that he was voting for Harris. The Trump supporter said that BIden and Harris had accomplished nothing. When my brother in law (politely I’m sure) noted that he disagreed. The Trump supporters (plural...

This is actually related to my day job. For some decades I have been puzzled by two of Kahneman and Tversky’s discoveries (reported very well in this excellent book). First, there is the excessive reliance on diagnostic characteristics (called diagnostic expectations by economists). A classic example is the room with 90 lawyers and 10 engineers. Jim is quiet and hardworking and likes model trains. It is human nature to conclude he is an engineer...

 – by New Deal democrat The news about initial and continuing jobless claims was almost all good this week. Initial claims declined -2,000 to 231,000, and the four-week moving average declined -4,750 to 231,500, the lowest since early June. Continuing claims increased by 13,000 to 1.868 million: As usual, more important for forecasting purposes are the YoY% changes. In that regard, initial claims were down -1.3%, and the four-week moving...

I attended 7th grade in a building that was built of brick and wood. In 8th grade, I was moved to the new junior high, a formed concrete building in the modern fortress architecture style.Now, it seems, what was old is new again. Wood is making a comeback, with a focus on a green building strategy called “embodied” carbon reduction. The goal is to lower the amount of greenhouse gas emissions in the construction processes.“Buildings account for more...

As usual Trump is bleating about the upcoming election and how he will be cheated through fraudulent actions if he loses. Another point being made in this commentary is the pricing of goods which went up 14% while corporate profits when up five times as much. A Kroger Director admits such for some food products. My argument over the years has been prices can increase unduly and not due to increases in cost. Companies can increase prices because...

What is the issue(s) here is larger hospitals such as “Bon Secours (48 hospitals) has been slashing services” at its facility in a poorer, predominantly Black part of Richmond. At the same time, it is ‘investing in the city’s wealthier, white neighborhoods.’” By maintaining the Richmond hospital, it keeps access to the 340B program, provides drugs to the hospital in the wealthy section, and goes around the 340B rules. 340B hospitals are also...