The Angry Bear

Two excellent short and very readable mini articles (to be redundant). Both pieces are pointing to a direction the Fed should take in the next year or sooner with regard to Climate Change. It is doubtful they will do so until catastrophe hits. What is a few $billion more in spending, right??? This aspect of our economy and how it can impact the economy should be taken into consideration in decision making and costs. This is partially why, these...

I guess if you are X-President D. Trump and a civilian, nothing still applies to him. Even showing respect at Arlington. This is a man who called Vets losers. Trump: “Why should I go to that cemetery? It’s filled with losers.” On McCain . . . “He’s not a war hero,” Trump said in 2015 while running for the Republican nomination for president. “I like people who weren’t captured.” About McCains funeral, “He’s not a war hero,” Trump said in 2015...

 – by New Deal democrat Over the past year, I have downgraded the importance of manufacturing indicators as a forecasting tool for the economy as a whole. This post explores why and suggests a revised tool that may be a helpful short leading indicator. On Monday, durable goods orders rebounded sharply in July from their abrupt June decline. Still, as shown in the graph below, growth in both new factory orders and core capital goods orders has...

Here’s the Penn Wharton Budget Model breakdown for how much each candidate’s economic proposals will affect the national debt:“We estimate that the Trump Campaign tax and spending proposals would increase primary deficits by $5.8 trillion over the next 10 years on a conventional basis and by $4.1 trillion on a dynamic basis that includes economic feedback effects. Households across all income groups benefit on a conventional basis.”“We estimate that...

QUARTZ The ‘Lock-in Effect’ is Easing. Here is What It means for the Housing Market Homeowners are beginning to give up on waiting for lower mortgage rates. That could be good news for potential homebuyers. In the first quarter of this year, six of every seven homeowners, or 86%, have a mortgage rate below 6%, according to a Redfin analysis of the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s National Mortgage Database published Tuesday. That’s down from a...

Why people stay after local economies collapse − a story of home among the ghosts of shuttered steel mills by Tracy Walsh The Conversation It was midday on a Saturday, and Simonetta led me from the open front door of her home in southeast Chicago to her sitting room and settled next to her husband, Christopher, on the couch. In the 1980s, Christopher had worked a few blocks away at U.S. Steel South Works, earning three times the minimum...

Joyce Vance at Civil Discourse on Jack Smith’s New Approach. Since trump now has certain immunities due to being a former pres, pres, president as declared by SCOTUS. Took a bit to call trump a president. Jack Smith takes a different approach in indicting trump as citizen trump. He carefully avoids reference to the office of president. This is going to be interesting as this new indictment will be appealed. In a Tuesday afternoon surprise,...

Analyzing Trump’s potential behavior in a debate with Kamala Harris. The smart plan or move would be to allow Trump to babble all he wants to and just remain the calm one. The adult in the room giving reasoned answers to the country’s needs. Don’t give him the room to suck one into his style of debate. Letters from an American by Prof. Heather Cox Richardson The point that is currently holding up plans for ABC’s September 10 presidential...

by Guest Economist Joseph Joyce Capital Ebbs and Flows The disruption of the global economy caused by the COVID pandemic in 2020 had begun to be overcome when the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 led to new fissures. Sanctions were placed by the United States and European nations on trade and capital transactions with Russia. Before the pandemic, tariffs and other trade measures had been imposed by the  United States and China on each other,...

Repeat home sale indexes show continued deceleration in house price inflation, more comfort room for Fed to cut rates  – by New Deal democrat This morning, we got the repeat home sales price data from the FHFA and Case Shiller. And the news was good, especially in the slightly leading FHFA Index. This is of heightened importance compared with normal historical times. That’s because to reiterate, my focus is looking for any movement towards...