The Angry Bear

Housing construction changes little in December; but increased mortgage rates from H2 2023 have not yet been digested  – by New Deal democrat For this post, I’m going to show what the housing market looks like from most to least leading of the indicators. That shows that, although this morning’s release for housing permits and starts for December was generally positive, it is more likely that housing construction will decline rather than...

 A key factor in many manufacturing companies is the outsourcing of the manufacturing of components which the parent company has become expert in creating, manufacturing, and quality control of components. Unless a company’s employee is to be on site, it is difficult to ensure the quality of manufacture. The outsourced company does not have the innate ownership of the sourcing company. Been at this too long. I was reading on Linked-In how a bunch...

This piece by Lloyd Alter is about household indoor air contaminants. The reasoning for this is . . . Homes are far tighter than what they used to be by design. There is much less of an outside air exchange today. Unless, the home design allows it to breath. We are seeing a higher level of air pollutants which impact our health over time. Lloyd is asking us to step back and take a look at what everyday life dangers lie in within our homes....

Jobless claims: bar one week, the lowest number of layoffs in over half a century  – by New Deal democrat To reiterate my theme from last week, we’re back to the virtuous scenario where almost nobody is getting laid off. Initial jobless claims last week declined -16,000 to 187,000. Except for one week in September 2022, this is the lowest number in over 50 years (since 1969, to be more precise). The 4-week average declined -4,750 to 203,250,...

Who saved the US from a pandemic and delivered a good economy. The 2024 political cycle, a triumph of recycling. President Biden and former President Trump are preparing to star in a sequel most Americans do not care to see. That means that eyes will be on the vice-president, Kamala Harris, as well. Because Mr Biden is the oldest president ever, and would be 82 at his second inauguration, voters will scrutinize Ms. Harris with unusual care. The...

In 1980 I had a long argument with an unfortunate guy who didn’t just say “let’s agree to disagree” which sometimes works. He was arguing that the US should build B-1s, then the weapon of the future. I argued that the US should rely on Tomahawk missiles (launched from B-52s) which I asserted were the weapon of the future. It is now what was in 1980 the future and guess what weapon was used yesterday (hint it wasn’t a B-1 bomber). I love to say...

Fireworks, drone swarms, military history and the military future. Oh and China always China. This is a followup to The 101st Chairborn: History is a Prankster The key new point is drone *swarms* that is thousands of drones in coordinated flight. the point is that e even if a drone is slow so that the chance of shooting it down is 99.99%, the chance of shooting down all of 10,000 isn’t (0.9999)^10000 = 1/e because the drones draw fire from...

Industrial production continues in near-recessionary trajectory  – by New Deal democrat In contrast to this morning’s good news on consumption, production continued its lackluster 2023 all the way to the end. Total industrial production (blue in the graph below) increased 0.1% in December, but revisions to the two previous months totaled -0.2%, so the net result was a -0.1% decrease compared with where we thought we were in November....

Decades ago, I read a column by Andrew Young, the former Atlanta Mayor and UN representative, in which he wrote that you should never trust anyone who says they aren’t racist. You should say I’m working on my racism.Recently, the former South Carolina governor and current GOP presidential candidate Nikki Haley omitted to mention that slavery was a cause of the Civil War (it was *the* cause–see the Cornerstone Document, as just one exhibit). Now,...

Most state laws back the company when it comes to employment. Plus, you don’t have the cash to make a fight out of it. So move on to something better, forget them, do something great, chalk it up to experience, learn from it, and ask the right questions the next go around. Being let-go happens. Reasons could be because of the economy, job is transferred, boss does not like you, or maybe you are just to slow at acclimating to the company...