The Angry Bear

Setting a baseline for a manufacturing slowdown If I am right that by roughly midyear 2019 the economy will experience a substantial slowdown, then we ought to start seeing a deceleration in the leading indicators for manufacturing soon. Additionally, if rail transportation is accurately signaling that a slowdown is already hitting due to the impact of Trump’s tariffs and China’s retaliation, producers ought to be noticing the effects almost immediately,...

by New Deal democrat Weekly Indicators for October 22 – 26 at Seeking Alpha My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. Weakness, which had been confined to the long leading indicators, is now showing up in some of the short leading indicators as well. Meanwhile, Trump’s tariffs look like they are taking an immediate bite out of economic activity. In other words, all of that front-running that boosted inventory accumulation that showed up in Q3 GDP...

Failed Perceptions Of Economic Reality It is long  viewed that what the electoral populace thinks of the state of the economy is an important factor in how they vote and electoral outcomes.  Prior to 2000 the state of the economy as measured by real per capita  GDP growth explained presidential election outcomes except in cases where there was a war (!940) or there was a party split (1912).  Personal scandals also played roles, with Ford’s defeat in...

(Dan here….while there are issues in the politics, what is a Nationalist’s game plan beyond the issue of the moment?) Via Washington Examiner: During an appearance on CNN, Bernstein said his sources relayed this information to him on Friday, warning that Trump has talked about a disruption campaign if the results are close but have the Democrats taking control of the House or Senate. “I talked to people … in touch with the White House on Friday who...

Michigan 8th District Congressman Mike Bishop’s ad: “Additionally, under the American Health Care Act (AHCA), insurance companies cannot deny coverage based on pre-existing conditions – yet Elissa Slotkin continues to lie about Mike Bishop’s record. Sec. 137 of H.R. 1628 of the AHCA states: “Nothing in this Act shall be construed as permitting health insurance issuers to limit access to health coverage for individuals with preexisting conditions.” Under...

by New Deal democrat Q3 2018 update: “Kasriel Recession Warning Indicator” One of the methods I incorporate into my long leading indicators is the “Kasriel Recession Warning Indicator.” This is something I first read about in 2007, when the eponymous Paul Kasriel, then of Northern Trust and now of Legacy Private Trust Co., wrote that it forecast a recession within the next year. Needless to say, his call was on the mark! The indicator consists of a...

When the stock market headlines the political blogs . . . Here is a graph I saw on Digby’s blog this morning: There was also a highly-recommended, heavily-commented piece at Daily Kos. Here’s a pro tip: when you see a daily stock market move leading the political blogs, it’s a sign of a bottom, not a  top. That’s because it’s a sign of emotion, and it means that amateurs are paying close attention. By the time that happens, the big move is over,...

A follow-up on the reasons for prime age labor force non-participation Here is something interesting I found in an article by staffers at the Kansas City Fed a couple of weeks ago. They broke down the 25-54 prime age labor force participation group for men into 10 year slices, by education, and by reason for not participating in the labor force. They focused on men, because including women confounds the results by the secular societal change whereby...

An update on yield curve dynamics So I submitted this wonderful piece to Seeking Alpha Tuesday morning, and figured I would just link to it today. But as in the best laid plans of mice and men, somehow it reverted to a draft without ever being reviewed by the site’s editors, which means it isn’t up there yet and there is no big economic news today. Sigh.  So in the meantime, consider this …. The bond market is behaving in totally typical fashion in...