The Angry Bear

by New Deal democrat Weekly Indicators for June 24 – 28 at Seeking Alpha My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. Not a lot of movement in any individual indicators, but manufacturing in particular moved very close to a downgrade.

Initial jobless claims: positive this week, but close to crossing two thresholds for concern I have started to monitor initial jobless claims to see if there are any signs of stress. My two thresholds are: 1. If the four week average on claims is more than 10% above its expansion low. 2. If the YoY% change in the monthly average turns higher. Here’s this week’s update. The four week average is 9.8% above its recent low: On a weekly basis, YoY the...

Donald Trump – Don’t Insult Our Team at the World Cup At 3PM EDT on Friday, I’ll be watching the coverage via Fox of our great women’s soccer team playing the host team in Paris. It is only the quarterfinals of the World Cup and yet this may be the game of the entire match. Unfortunately the Idiot in Chief has been writing a lot of insulting tweets: President Donald Trump has invited the U.S. women’s soccer team to the White House, regardless of whether...

Manufacturing job losses now look virtually certain I’ll have a post going up at Seeking Alpha later, but between a steep decline in the manufacturing work week, lackluster regional Fed manufacturing indexes (still barely positive), a turndown in durable goods orders (in part due to Boeing’s woes), and increasing inventories, it now looks nearly certain that there will be an actual decline in manufacturing jobs over the next twelve months. To put this in...

Back in April, I finished up an article for ConsumerSafety.Org called A Woman’s Right to Safe Healthcare Outcomes. The topics covered in this as given to me by ConsumerSafety.Org were Clinical Trials, Essure, and Maternal Mortality. All of the topics dealt with women’s healthcare. Of the three issues addressed, I found Maternal Mortality to be the most compelling. I told the story of a white upper middle class couple, Lauren Bloomstein a nurse and her...

Whither The Price Of Oil? I do not know, which is a kind of silly way to start a post, but pretty obviously this is an opening to talk about some other matters, especially the US-Iran situation.  However, I want to point out some things  that have been on my mind.  In particular, while oil price volatility has not been super extreme recently compared to some movements in the last decade and a half, the degree of uncertainty and confusion about what is...

New home sales: is housing developing a price “choke collar”? So, new single family home sales for May were reported light this morning: Because this series is very volatile and heavily revised, as always take this with a grain of salt. To smooth out some of the volatility, I pay more attention to the three month moving average, which at 670k is slightly below that of that average for the past two reports, and also slightly below the late 2017 peak....

(Dan here…lifted from Robert’s Stochastic Thoughts) Kevin Drum Talking ’bout my generation Kevin Drum has a funny but also genuinely interesting post on how boomers are not really to blame for messing up America (he half tongue in cheek blames the silent generation). I don’t think the defensiveness is entirely an act. He does concede Now, if you want to blame boomers for welfare reform, sure. Bill Clinton was (barely) a boomer. If you want to blame...

New article in Shelterforce highlights EU state aid rules Greg LeRoy and I have written an article at Shelterforce explaining the basics of the European Union’s rules governing subsidies, or “state aid” in EU-speak. As the article is ungated, and regular readers will remember much of the detail, I will not quote it here. Suffice it to say that the continuing reverberations of Amazon’s HQ2 project have opened space to shine a brighter light on economic...