The Angry Bear

Well by attacking the group Trump got the press to completely forget about the refugees on the southern border. You would think that after all this time the media would learn to deal with his misdirection.

  Congress has been busily working on a much-needed way to improve Middle Class savings and growth over the span of their employment to boost their retirement. Dueling bills to restructure IRAs and 401ks appear to be redundant. Better known as the “Setting Every Community Up for Retirement Act” (SECURE Act) H.R.1994 and the Senate has a similar bill, the “Retirement Enhancements and Savings Act” S.792 (RESA). Both bills were passed with bipartisan support. For the ultra rich? A...

A Half Century Since Apollo 11 Launched To The Moon On July 16, 1969, a half century ago today, a Saturn 5 rocket launched from Cape Kennedy on its way to the moon, where Neil Armstrong and Buzz Aldrin would land on the moon on July 20 before returning successfully to earth.  Recent books have made clear just how close a call it was with many things nearly going wrong that would have doomed them, including such oddities as Aldrin using a felt tipped pen...

by New Deal democrat The consumer vs. the producer economy Prof. Edward Leamer wrote over a decade ago that, in a consumer led recession, first housing turns, then vehicle sales, then other consumer goods. What do home and vehicle sales tell us now about the economy, vs. corporate profits? This post is up at Seeking Alpha. As usual, clicking over and reading puts a penny or two in my pocket. ...

Mark Thoma has a post up on Facebook. Apparently, Trump intends to nominate Dr. Judy Shelton to the Fed. I knew Trump was bat-sh*t crazy and now he has confirmed he is bat-sh*t stupid too (if you did not already know this). It is hard to know which is worse as they come in a daily stream of excesses. I do not necessarily agree with my former Econ Prof (not Mark) from time to time; but, he does have a deeper knowledge on the topic than I, to which I listen...

He can choose Scotland or Germany (although neither want him — I wonder where he is hated more — Scots tend to be lefty and very good at hating). I won’t go back to my own country — Hungary — because I can’t stand Viktor Orban and can’t learn the language (I have never felt as foreign as I did when looking for my grandmother’s old apartment). But he directed his go back to their own country racist xenophobic attack at, among others, Alexandria...

WARNING: another “debt ceiling debacle” is looming, and could cause nearly immediate recession It’s time to start to get seriously worried about another “debt ceiling debacle.” In 2011, the GOP refused to authorize a “clean” debt ceiling hike. The hike in the debt ceiling, for those who may not know, is necessary for the US government to pay debts that *it has already incurred.* In 2011, as a result of the impasse, US creditworthiness was downgraded...

Pence’s Potemkin Village on the Mexican Border Merriam Webster defines a Potemkin Village as: an impressive facade or show designed to hide an undesirable fact or condition Mike Pence visited a Potemkin Village in Donna, Texas: Pence also visited a tent-like temporary detention facility in Donna, Texas, that holds unaccompanied children and immigrant families. The new and mostly clean facility stood in stark contrast to the McAllen station Pence later...

Friday evening the S&P 500 closed at 3013.77, up 20.2 % year to date. But much of that gain is just recovering from the drop in late 2019, as  it is only up some 3.4% from September, 2019. This is the first time the S&P closed above 3000 and people are wondering if the market is overvalued. The S&P 500 PE is now at 19.6, almost exactly where my model implies it should be.  As the chart shows it is right in the middle of my estimated fair value...