The Angry Bear

The Expansion Of Assets With Negative Nominal Interest Rates Buried in the Weekend section of the Financial Times is a report that the aggregate value of assets that earn negative nominal yields has substantially expanded since the beginning of 2019 and has reached a new high.  So on January 1, 2019, the value of these assets was at $8.3 trillion.  As of six months later it had reached $13 trillion, a more than 50 percent increase.  There are fewer...

Everybody and their brother has an opinion about the direction of long bond yields so  it should be OK for me to stick my two cents worth in. This chart of the composite of all long bond yields versus the long wave is one I published every month on the back cover of my monthly publication for over 20 years before I retired a couple of years ago.  Basically, I thought of it as a good way  to show that I was a long term bull on interest rates in a way that...

One Mutt’s Speech for You to think about after celebrating the long Weekend from the nationalistic holiday called the Forth of July while others are fleeing terror and violence. John Winger: “Cut it out! Cut it out! Cut it out! The hell’s the matter with you? Stupid! We’re all very different people. We’re not Watusi. We’re not Spartans. We’re Americans, with a capital ‘A’, huh? You know what that means? Do ya? That means that our forefathers were kicked...

by New Deal democrat Weekly Indicators for July 1 – 5 at Seeking Alpha My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. Lower long term interest rates continue to improve the long range forecast, while the short term forecast has deteriorated. As usual, clicking over and reading puts a penny or two in my pocket to help reward me for my efforts.

This clip is of Rose Lavelle scoring the second goal in the 69th minute of the game. The clip has been disabled and must be seen on YouTube. Click on the arrowhead first and then the “Watch this video at YouTube” and it will take you there. [embedded content] United States’ Rose Lavelle doubles lead vs. Netherlands | 2019 FIFA Women’s World Cup™ Highlights, Fox Sports, Fox News, July 2, 2019. Nothing like going in for the winning insurance goal coming...

Connecticut Representative John Larson Proposes Plan To Destroy Social Security In Order To Save It, by Dale Coberly Connecticut Congressman John Larson introduces H. R. 860, Social Security 2100 Act which will cuts taxes, strengthen benefits, prevents anyone from retiring into poverty, and ensure Social Security remains strong for generations. larson.house.gov It sounds good, but of course he wants it to sound good. In the past we have had to be...

I am thinking about modern macroeconomic methodology again. I am also thinking about the fresh water school of thought. Also I am thinking about aspirin and smallpox. I am going to attempt a nickle summary of the Lucas critique (really a half penny summary or a 5 Turkish Lira summary). Lucas argued that it was unwise to base policy on models which fit the available data, because parameters can be estimated even if they do not describe causal...

June jobs report: excellent establishment survey, mediocre household survey HEADLINES: +224,000 jobs added U3 unemployment rate rose 0.1% from 3.6% to 3.7% U6 underemployment rate rose 0.1% from 7.1% to 7.2% Leading employment indicators of a slowdown or recession   I am highlighting these because many leading indicators overall strongly suggest that an employment slowdown is coming. The following more leading numbers in the report tell us about where...