The Angry Bear

by New Deal democrat Credit remains loose, but big borrowers aren’t interested; real consumer spending may be stalling We interrupt this coverage of the ongoing Trump Boom (c) to advise you that two more long leading indicators, while still positive, are showing at least some weaknesses.  This story is up at Seeking Alpha. As usual, reading the story over there is both informative for you and a little $$$ revwarding for me. Also, as an aside, once...

From Washington Monthly Nancy LeTourneau On Wednesday some young climate activists joined by newly elected Alexandria Ocasio Cortez held a demonstration at Nancy Pelosi’s office. While we can debate whether it is a smart move to hold such an event at the office of a leader who is on your side as opposed to the myriad of Republican leaders who are climate deniers, Pelosi welcomed them with open arms. Pelosi Nov 13, 2018 Deeply inspired by the young...

With October consumer price inflation reported, let’s update a few metrics. First of all, while the YoY% growth in real wages increased: real wages were unchanged month over month, as both nominal wages and consumer inflation both increased by +0.3%: Real wages have still not even increased 1% in the last 2 1/2 years. Because, as I noted yesterday, so much of consumer inflation, and therefore real wages, depends on gas...

A little history: In 1980, the Porter and Jick letter to the editor of the New England Journal of Medicine by the Boston Collaborative Drug Surveillance Program stated: “the risk of addiction was low when opioids such as oxycodone were prescribed for chronic pain.” It was a brief statement by the doctors conducting the study, taken out of context, and cited many times afterwards as justification for the use of oxycodone. In a June 1, 2017 letter to the...

I have a new article that hopefully will get posted by Seeking Alpha later today.  In the meantime … Two weeks ago I wrote an article establishing a manufacturing baseline for my forecast of an economic slowdown by about the middle of next year. I concluded that by saying: the first thing I am looking for is decelerating growth which will show up in a reading below 15 in the average of  Regional Fed reports, and below 60 in ISM new orders. The ISM...

Changes in labor bargaining power take up to a decade to be fully effective Sorry for the recent lack of posting on economic matters. Partly it is ennui, and partly it is a near total dearth of data in between the employment report a week ago Friday and tomorrow’s CPI report.  Even a couple of quarterly series I usually report on have been inexplicably delayed. In the meantime, here is a graph from Jared Bernstein that is worth some extended comment. It...

A Serious Centennial After failing to show up at a major American cemetery in France at least our president did not add to his shame by failing to show up for the big show with 60 or so other national leaders at the Arc de Triomphe for the official ceremony marking the centennial of the 11th hour on the 11th day of the 11th month of November, 1918, when the guns fell silent on the western front of World War I, officially ending it in the eyes of most...

Is It Not The Economy, Stupid? On many Mondays I indulge in taking Robert J. Samuelson to task after his regular Washington Post column of the day.  Today he was almost right, or if you prefer, even mostly right.  This one was titled “It’s Not the Economy, Stupid” about the outcome of the midterm election, as well as a delayed comment on the 2016 presidential election (although, of course, HRC did win the popular vote by three million popular votes, if...