Mike Norman Economics

Alex Williams recently wrote “What Is ‘Core PCE Services Ex-Housing’ Anyway?,” which dissects the measure that the Fed is using to get a handle on “underlying” inflation. The most interesting bit (for me) is that about 1/4 of this measure is an imputed price index, based on wages. This means that this component will track wages (giving a convenient analytical relationship) by definition.The logic of following this measure is that the Fed convinced itself that the core (ex-food and and...

Britain is now in a very undesirable state. The governing Tories are bereft of any sensible ideas and likely to lose the next General election in 2024 to Labour, who are promising to be the party of ‘sound finance’, which means they will be incapable of dealing with the challenges that face the nation in a highly volatile world and will likely end up losing popularity and ceding government back to the Tories. And just as in 2010, the Labour reputation will tarnished and they will be lost...

The problem with conventional economics is that it requires that the "settled methodology" define both the questions and how they are answered, insuring that their mathematical models will be tractable. That is inappropriate for complex adaptive systems. All life systems and especially social systems are complex adaptive systems that are appropriately modeled using organic models rather than mechanistic models suitable for the natural sciences.While MMT does not use organic modeling based on...

Goldman's biggest bear says, "market just doesn't want to go down." Wow. What analysis.

Gold ruble in the works? Longish. Many details. Speculative so far.Sergei Glazyev has apparently shifted from a commodity basket toward international settlement in gold with the value of gold being anchored to a barrel of oil.GoldmoneyRussia’s intentions are clarifyingAlasdair Macleod

They have to rationalize what's happening through their limited analytical framework, and it's hilarious to watch.

The New Silk Roads, or BRI, as well as the integration efforts of BRICS+, the SCO and the EAEU will be on the forefront of Chinese policy.Strategic Culture Foundation (sanctioned by the US Treasury Department)Can You Smell What the Year of the Rabbit Is Cooking?Pepe EscobarSee alsoRussian Foreign Minister Lavrov informed Africans during a press conference while on his latest tour of the continent that India is an independent multipolar powerhouse. His exact words were as follows: “Those...

Setting the record straight. New Keynesianism (typified by Paul Krugman) is not Keynes, nor is it a faithful rendition of John Hicks either.Lars P. Syll’s BlogHyman Minsky and the IS-LM obfuscationLars P. Syll | Professor, Malmo University

Total US arms transfers for fiscal 2022 topped $50 billion, up nearly 50 percent from prior year."Winning bigly." MICIMATT (Military-Industrial-Congressional-Intelligence-Media-Academia-Think-Tank complex), that is. Breaking DefenseFor US, foreign arm sales boom amid Russian invasion, Chinese intimidationLee Ferran

Its been around 9 months since the central banks of the world (bar Japan) started to push up interest rates. This reflected a return to the dominant mainstream view that fiscal policy should aim to support monetary policy in its fight against inflation and thus be biased towards surpluses, while central banks manipulated interest rates to deal with any inflationary pressures. The central banks would somehow form a ‘future-looking’ view that inflation was about to spring up and they would...