Naked Keynesianism

[embedded content] I don't normally post about this stuff, but the possible implications of this technological change are far reaching, not just in terms of safety as implied in the video (somewhat promotional; hey, it's WIRED), but also in terms of employment. Jimmy Hoffa is turning on his grave, wherever that is. The original WIRED piece here.

According to the BEA, the advance estimate of GDP growth in the third quarter is 2.9%, which is a significant improvement on the second quarter (1.4%). So maybe there is no recession in the near future (Neil Irwin might be right about that), which does not mean Yellen should hike the Fed rate in December anyway.

Next semester I'll be teaching a senior seminar on the history of central banks. The idea is to blend economic history, history of economics ideas and monetary theory in equal parts. And I decided to post on some of the topics I'll discuss in the class, very much like Robert Paul Wolff's tutorials in his blog The Philosopher's Stone, but probably in a less instructive and interesting way than the ones he posts (see this multi-part tutorial on Marx that starts here, and continues here and...

The new Bank for International Settlements (BIS) Triennial Central Bank Survey was published last month. The Foreign exchange turnover is down for the first time since they started in 1996. As the press release says: "Trading in FX markets averaged $5.1 trillion per day in April 2016. This is down from $5.4 trillion in April 2013." The figure below shows the main results. Not surprisingly the dollar remained the key vehicle currency, being on one side of around 88% of all trades, while...

In their recent NYTimes op-ed Paul Volcker and Peter Peterson say: Yes, this country can handle the nearly $600 billion federal deficit estimated for 2016. But the deficit has grown sharply this year, and will keep the national debt at about 75 percent of the gross domestic product, a ratio not seen since 1950, after the budget ballooned during World War II. The practical consequence of large deficits and debts, according to them is that: Our current debt may be manageable at a time of...

Locked out By Thomas PalleyThis paper explores lock-in and lock-out via economic policy. It argues policy decisions may near-irrevocably change the economy’s structure, thereby changing its performance. That causes changed economic outcomes concerning distribution of wealth, income and power, which in turn induces locked-in changes in political outcomes. That is a different way of thinking about policy compared to conventional macroeconomic stabilization theory. The latter treats...

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The persistence of low interest rates has dominated the news. In general related to whether the Fed will or will not increase the interest rate by the end of the year. The Economist tried a few weeks ago to put things in perspective, and suggested not only that the current nominal rates close to zero are unprecedented, but it sort of indicated that the negative real rates are also to some extent a new phenomenon. The explanations for low rates can be found here, and the consequences,...

Economists for Peace and Security will conduct its 9th annual policy symposium at the Hyatt Regency Capitol Hill in Washington DC on November 14, 2016 to discuss the economic dimensions of the most pressing global security issues and those facing the domestic economy. Following one of the most unusual presidential and congressional elections in US history, three panels of senior specialists will present ideas for improving prospects for peace, and growth with fairness for all...

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