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Consumer credit, Mania comment, Fed on rates and inflation

Summary:
It’s been decelerating all year with a year end move up that’s likely to be reversed as personal income growth continues to be very low: Highlights Consumer borrowing increased in December, up .4 billion vs an upwardly revised .0 billion in November which is the largest monthly increase since a break in the series 7 years ago. Revolving credit, a component that tracks credit-card debt, rose a sizable .1 billion following a November spike of .0 billion. On an annualized basis, revolving credit rose at a 6.0 percent pace in December. Non-revolving credit rose at a 5.7 percent pace in the month and in month-to-month dollar terms rose .3 billion. Gains in this component, which is nearly triple the size of the revolving component, were split between student

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It’s been decelerating all year with a year end move up that’s likely to be reversed as personal income growth continues to be very low:

Consumer credit, Mania comment, Fed on rates and inflation

Highlights

Consumer borrowing increased in December, up $18.4 billion vs an upwardly revised $31.0 billion in November which is the largest monthly increase since a break in the series 7 years ago. Revolving credit, a component that tracks credit-card debt, rose a sizable $5.1 billion following a November spike of $11.0 billion. On an annualized basis, revolving credit rose at a 6.0 percent pace in December.

Non-revolving credit rose at a 5.7 percent pace in the month and in month-to-month dollar terms rose $13.3 billion. Gains in this component, which is nearly triple the size of the revolving component, were split between student loans and especially vehicle financing.

The gain for revolving credit does suggest that those shoppers who are cash strapped turned to their credit cards to do their share to fund the holiday shopping season.

Consumer credit, Mania comment, Fed on rates and inflation

To my point about a general ‘mania’ that seems to be fading:

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The notion that higher rates from the Fed cause higher inflation seems to be getting a bit of a hearing;

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Consumer credit, Mania comment, Fed on rates and inflation

WARREN MOSLER
Warren Mosler is an American economist and theorist, and one of the leading voices in the field of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT). Presently, Warren resides on St. Croix, in the US Virgin Islands, where he owns and operates Valance Co., Inc.

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