Wednesday , June 19 2019
Home / Mosler Economics / ADP, Mtg purchase apps, Vehicle sales

ADP, Mtg purchase apps, Vehicle sales

Summary:
Employment can be a lagging indicator, so this forecast of Friday’s employment number could be verifying the rest of the weakness that’s been reported: US Private Sector Jobs Rise the Least in 9 Years Private businesses in the US hired 27 thousand workers in May, less than an expected 180 thousand and compared to April’s 271 thousand increase. It was the smallest payroll increase since March 2010, as the service-providing sector added 71 thousand jobs while the goods-producing sector shed 43 thousand jobs, mainly in the construction sector. Highlights ADP sees private payrolls coming in at a very weak and far lower-than-expected 27,000 in Friday’s employment report for May. Forecasters expected today’s ADP estimate to come in at a solid 175,000. The

Topics:
WARREN MOSLER considers the following as important:

This could be interesting, too:

WARREN MOSLER writes NT Manufacturing, Home builder index, Earnings

WARREN MOSLER writes Retail sales, US Industrial Production, China Industrial Production, Morgan Stanley business conditions index

WARREN MOSLER writes Fed recession models, Trade, Euro area industrial production

WARREN MOSLER writes Small business optimism, JOLTS, Rail chart, Commercial real estate, Tariffs

Employment can be a lagging indicator, so this forecast of Friday’s employment number could be verifying the rest of the weakness that’s been reported:

US Private Sector Jobs Rise the Least in 9 Years

Private businesses in the US hired 27 thousand workers in May, less than an expected 180 thousand and compared to April’s 271 thousand increase. It was the smallest payroll increase since March 2010, as the service-providing sector added 71 thousand jobs while the goods-producing sector shed 43 thousand jobs, mainly in the construction sector.

ADP, Mtg purchase apps, Vehicle sales

Highlights

ADP sees private payrolls coming in at a very weak and far lower-than-expected 27,000 in Friday’s employment report for May. Forecasters expected today’s ADP estimate to come in at a solid 175,000. The consensus for Friday’s private payrolls going into today’s ADP report was also for a 175,000 increase. Private payrolls rose 236,000 in April. ADP’s forecast, one that if proves accurate would intensify expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, is likely to trigger at least some downward revisions among forecasters for Friday’s results.

ADP, Mtg purchase apps, Vehicle sales
Purchase apps down even with lower rates:

ADP, Mtg purchase apps, Vehicle sales

Highlights

Rates moved sharply lower in the May 31 week which gave a boost to refinancing applications, up 6.0 percent in the week, but not purchase applications which fell 2.0 percent. Year-on-year, the purchase index is suddenly showing weakness with only a 0.5 percent gain. Conventional 30-year mortgages fell 10 basis points in the week to 4.23 percent. The housing sector has been moving higher this year though improvement has been uneven.

May vehicle sales up a bit from April, but as the chart shows they are nonetheless working their way lower:

ADP, Mtg purchase apps, Vehicle sales

WARREN MOSLER
Warren Mosler is an American economist and theorist, and one of the leading voices in the field of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT). Presently, Warren resides on St. Croix, in the US Virgin Islands, where he owns and operates Valance Co., Inc.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *