Tag Archives: 2023

Weekly Indicators for August 28 – September 1 at Seeking Alpha  – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. The long leading indicators continue to forecast that a hard landing is out there, while the short leading indicators – aided by a sharp increase in consumer spending in the past few weeks – say it isn’t close to being here, at least not yet, As usual, clicking over and reading will bring you up to the...

July JOLTS report: is the game of reverse musical chairs in employment ending?  – by New Deal democrat For the past 18 months, I’ve likened the job market to a game of reverse musical chairs, where there are more chairs put out by potential employers than there are job applicants willing to fill them. Also for many months, I have noted the gradual deceleration in that game. July’s JOLTS report not only continued that trend we’ve seen for the...

Frozen homeowners mean record low inventory, meaning existing home prices have stopped declining  – by New Deal democrat Before discussing this morning’s reports on existing home prices, let’s start with a look at new listings and total active listings of housing inventory, which are very instructive: This information is not seasonally adjusted, and obviously follows a seasonal pattern. The important thing to notice is that since late last...

AB: The link below the chart developed by Josh Bivens is to find subsidies or funds granted to towns, cities, counties, and states under the American Rescue Plan Act. For example, one small city i live in was granted $6.7 millions to which they wish to apply for an eight-mile water pipeline to an area northwest of the city. It is for new construction rather than improving the infrastructure they already have in place. Mind you, we are living on the...

Weekly Indicators for August 14 – 18 at Seeking Alpha  – by New Deal democrat [First of all, a reminder: I am on vacation for the next week, so don’t expect daily posts, especially if no significant economic data is released.] My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. While collapsing commodity prices have buoyed the shorter term leading indicators, the renewed increase in interest rates has made the long leading indicators even...

Pharma’s strike-from-all-sides attack on the IRA could be decided by the Supreme Court, PharmaVoice, Alexandra Pecci Pharma Voice reports Merck & Company and Bristol Myers Squibb in separate lawsuits are filing a multi-directional attack on Biden’s IRA using the first and fifth amendment as the basis for their filing. Industry lobbyists and co-litigants have joined with the two companies and include the Eighth Amendment in their filing in...

The importance of 10 (and 20) year new highs in interest rates  – by New Deal democrat As you may have already read elsewhere, interest rates on the 10 year US Treasury just made a new 10+ year high. Perhaps more importantly, 30 year mortgage rates made a new 20+ year high: Both rates are slightly above their previous highs from last October: Almost always in the past, interest rates peaked *before* the Fed finished hiking interest rates....

Industrial production improves, with help from vehicle production: travelin’ man edition  – by New Deal democrat Industrial production increased 1.0% in July. Its manufacturing component increased 0.5%. Total production is still down -0.6% from its peak last autumn, while manufacturing is down -01.%: These are not recessionary numbers.  It’s worth emphasizing that the unspooling of pandemic related bottlenecks is significantly affecting...

Weekly Indicators for August 7 – 11 at Seeking Alpha  – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. For the moment we are in something of a holding pattern, in particular with the coincident indicators. Buoyed by the big downturn in commodity prices, and somnolence of consumer prices ex-fictitious shelter, the short leading indicators continue to be much more positive. As usual, clicking over and reading will...

Weekly Indicators for August 7 – 11 at Seeking Alpha  – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. For the moment we are in something of a holding pattern, in particular with the coincident indicators. Buoyed by the big downturn in commodity prices, and somnolence of consumer prices ex-fictitious shelter, the short leading indicators continue to be much more positive. As usual, clicking over and reading will...