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Tag Archives: 2023

December JOLTS report: while hiring has weakened, firing (and quitting) continue to show a strong labor market

December JOLTS report: while hiring has weakened, firing (and quitting) continue to show a strong labor market  – by New Deal democrat Yesterday’s JOLTS report for December showed a labor market that, while decelerating, remains relatively strong. Let me start with layoffs and discharges, which increased by 85,000 to 1.616 million (blue in the graph below). This is nevertheless about average for the past year, and as usual mirrors the...

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Scenes from the leading sectors of the December jobs report: sectors of weakness and strength

Scenes from the leading sectors of the December jobs report: sectors of weakness and strength  – by New Deal democrat For nearly two decades, my focus on economic reporting online has been finding and examining leading indicators; those datapoints that tell us where the economy in general, and in particular jobs and income for ordinary Americans, are heading in the near future. Usually that has meant batting away DOOOOMers; those people who...

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Patto di stabilità: è finita come doveva finire

 Intervista a Il sussidiario 24 dicembre 2023 (a cura di Lorenzo Torrisi) NUOVO PATTO DI STABILITÀ/ “Italia lasciata senza alternativa, arriva l’austerità perpetua” Pubblicazione: 24.12.2023 - int. Sergio CesarattoLa riforma del Patto di stabilità non porta a una vera governance economica europea. Per l'Italia si prospettano anni di austeritàCosa pensa dell’accordo finale raggiunto sulla riforma del Patto di stabilità e crescita? Mah, è finita come doveva finire. La verità è che...

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The economic graph of the year for 2023

The economic graph of the year for 2023  – by New Deal democrat I’ll put up the final Coronavirus update of the year later today, but before we leave 2023, let me put up the graph that I think explains about 90% of the economic data this past year. And here it is: This was a graph I created, and included in a piece called “Why the Index of Leading Indicators failed” over at Seeking Alpha. Here’s the explanation: the situation just...

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A holly jolly holiday season for initial jobless claims

It appears there will be no layoffs pre-Christmas and Christmas. After Christmas, the delays in implementing EVs at GM will result in layoffs in Michigan. A holly jolly holiday season for initial jobless claims  – by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims rose 2,000 last week to 205,000, while the four-week average declined -1,500 to 212,000. With the usual one week delay, continuing claims declined -1,000 to 1.865 million: No...

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Jobless claims: good news all around

Jobless claims: good news all around  – by New Deal democrat This was one of the best weeks as to jobless claims all year. Initial claims declined -17,000 to 202,000, a tie for the 2nd lowest number in 10 months. The four week average declined -7,750 to 213,250. With the usual one week delay, continuing claims rose 20,000 to 1.876 million: Even more importantly for forecasting purposes, the YoY% changes both for the weekly number and the...

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Scenes from the leading sectors of the November jobs report: why I sounded a note of caution

Scenes from the leading sectors of the November jobs report: why I sounded a note of caution  – by New Deal democrat I seem to have been something of a negative outlier with respect to last Friday’s jobs report. Not because I was downbeat – although I said there were “warning signs of weakness,” but almost all the other commentary I have seen was upbeat.So today let’s take a look at the leading sectors in the jobs report, to show why I sounded...

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New Deal democrats Weekly Indicators for November 27 – December 1 plus ISM Manufacturing

Weekly Indicators for November 27 – December 1 at Seeking Alpha; plus a comment on the ISM manufacturing report  – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. The coincident data continues quite strong, and the long leading indicators are increasingly “less bad,” which is something that happens when recessions are beginning to ebb. As usual, clicking over and reading will bring you up to the virtual moment as to...

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Open Thread November 23 2023 SUVs and Pickups . . .

With high, flat fronts are 45% more likely to kill. Carbon Upfront, Lloyd Alter.  You might think it’s time I stuck to upfront carbon, but new research from the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety (IIHS) looks specifically at how dangerous these are for pedestrians. The numbers are shocking, with pickups and SUVs like this 45% more likely to kill. Open Thread November 18 2023 – Bidenomics, Angry Bear....

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Ruling citing Engaging in Insurrection

Arne in an earlier post this morning commented; “The ruling by Judge Wallace in Colorado that trump engaged in insurrection has not been discussed in another posting yet. If he is legally the instigator, is he guilty of manslaughter?” A Colorado judge on Friday (17 November) found that former President Donald Trump engaged in insurrection during the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol but rejected an effort to keep him off the state’s...

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